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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes
Re: Visible Sat.
      Tue May 02 2006 01:10 AM

It's still spinning out there, but it's about to be on its way out in some way, shape, or form, depending upon which model solution you want to believe. Indications are that the steering pattern is finally going to change somewhat -- a departure from previous model forecasts to some degree -- and allow this system to move off to the north and northeast. Both the latest runs of the GFS and NOGAPS that are in the phase space show this evolution with a potential warm-seclusion developing out of it all near 45N in a few days, while the UKMET continues to show dissipation in the near future. Needless to say, it shouldn't be a concern for much longer for Bermuda and is not a concern at all tropically-speaking...now less than 1%, I'd say. Time to let the doldrums of May take over -- and maybe hope for some rainfall along the SE US coastline, for instance.

Finally did get around the posting that latest blog on track forecasting; any comments or suggestions are welcome. I'm likely not going to have time to do another one before the season starts and we get into gear toward blogging on the storms themselves, unfortunately, but hope that the three (trough interactions, the cyclone phase space, and storm track forecasting) I did get to this off-season have been and will be of some use in the future.

As an aside, TIME Magazine named esteemed hurricane researcher Kerry Emanuel as one of it's 100 people influencing our world in 2006. They got the headline title for his piece somewhat wrong, in my view ("The Man Who Saw Katrina Coming"), but nevertheless it is interesting to see someone from the field get some note in such a forum. The full piece is available at http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1187251,00.html.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* National Hurricane Conference MikeCAdministrator Tue May 02 2006 01:10 AM
. * * Re: times of change Cat 5orBust   Mon May 15 2006 12:18 PM
. * * Re: times of change Clark   Mon May 15 2006 06:40 PM
. * * Re: National Hurricane Conference Lee-Delray   Mon May 15 2006 12:13 PM
. * * Tropical Wave..? ltpat228   Thu May 11 2006 10:15 PM
. * * Reminder Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat May 13 2006 07:28 PM
. * * spring cleaning Margie   Sat May 13 2006 07:39 PM
. * * Posting Protocol Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat May 13 2006 08:04 PM
. * * Aye aye mon capitan :-) Margie   Sun May 14 2006 10:17 AM
. * * Re: Aye aye mon capitan :-) Spoken   Thu May 18 2006 05:41 PM
. * * Re: Aye aye mon capitan :-) Spoken   Tue May 16 2006 05:09 AM
. * * Re: What is this??? dem05   Sun May 14 2006 10:43 PM
. * * Re: What is this??? CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun May 14 2006 10:51 PM
. * * Re: What is this??? dem05   Mon May 15 2006 01:53 AM
. * * Re: What is this??? Bloodstar   Mon May 15 2006 06:54 AM
. * * Re: What is this??? GuppieGrouper   Mon May 15 2006 10:04 AM
. * * GFS ltpat228   Sat May 06 2006 09:54 AM
. * * Re: GFS Deep Surge   Sat May 06 2006 04:22 PM
. * * Re: GFS Clark   Sun May 07 2006 04:42 PM
. * * Re: GFS rd522525   Sun May 07 2006 02:41 PM
. * * Re: National Hurricane Conference Lee-Delray   Tue Apr 25 2006 09:31 AM
. * * Re: National Hurricane Conference GuppieGrouper   Thu Apr 27 2006 08:19 PM
. * * Re: National Hurricane Conference Wingman51   Fri Apr 28 2006 09:45 AM
. * * Re: National Hurricane Conference Lee-Delray   Fri Apr 28 2006 10:17 AM
. * * Atlantic Invest 90L dem05   Fri Apr 28 2006 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Atlantic Invest 90L Margie   Fri Apr 28 2006 03:50 PM
. * * Re: Atlantic Invest 90L Jamiewx   Fri Apr 28 2006 06:12 PM
. * * Re: Atlantic Invest 90L Jane   Fri Apr 28 2006 06:43 PM
. * * Re: Atlantic Invest 90L Hugh   Fri Apr 28 2006 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Atlantic Invest 90L Storm Cooper   Fri Apr 28 2006 06:41 PM
. * * Re: Atlantic Invest 90L PreperationH   Fri Apr 28 2006 06:45 PM
. * * Re: Atlantic Invest 90L Margie   Fri Apr 28 2006 06:52 PM
. * * Re: Atlantic Invest 91L Bloodstar   Fri Apr 28 2006 07:18 PM
. * * Re: Atlantic Invest 91L Margie   Fri Apr 28 2006 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Atlantic Invest 91L Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Apr 28 2006 09:01 PM
. * * Re: Atlantic Invest 91L Wait'l next year! Cubs win W S - No hurricanes   Fri Apr 28 2006 11:26 PM
. * * Re: Atlantic Invest 91L ltpat228   Fri Apr 28 2006 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Atlantic Invest 91L Clark   Sat Apr 29 2006 01:01 AM
. * * Re: Atlantic Invest 91L MrSpock   Sat Apr 29 2006 06:33 PM
. * * Re: Atlantic Invest 91L Wait'l next year! Cubs win W S - No hurricanes   Sat Apr 29 2006 08:07 PM
. * * Re: Atlantic Invest 91L MrSpock   Sat Apr 29 2006 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Atlantic Invest 91L Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Sat Apr 29 2006 09:07 PM
. * * Re: Atlantic Invest 91L sara33   Sat Apr 29 2006 07:38 PM
. * * Re: Atlantic Invest 91L MrSpock   Sat Apr 29 2006 07:48 PM
. * * Re: Atlantic Invest 91L sara33   Sat Apr 29 2006 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Atlantic Invest 91L HanKFranK   Sat Apr 29 2006 03:40 AM
. * * All Quiet on the Western Front Margie   Sat Apr 29 2006 12:30 PM
. * * Re: All Quiet on the Western Front Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Apr 30 2006 08:57 AM
. * * Re: All Quiet on the Western Front Deep Surge   Sun Apr 30 2006 05:09 PM
. * * Re: All Quiet on the Western Front Clark   Mon May 01 2006 01:11 AM
. * * Re: All Quiet on the Western Front Margie   Mon May 01 2006 10:46 AM
. * * Visible Sat. Cocoa Beach   Mon May 01 2006 12:54 PM
. * * Re: Visible Sat. Clark   Tue May 02 2006 01:10 AM
. * * Re: Visible Sat. Tak   Tue May 02 2006 05:34 PM
. * * 2006 Evacuation Update danielwAdministrator   Tue May 02 2006 07:33 PM
. * * Re: 2006 Evacuation Update Storm Cooper   Tue May 02 2006 08:30 PM
. * * Re: 2006 Evacuation Update danielwAdministrator   Tue May 02 2006 08:58 PM
. * * too early HanKFranK   Wed May 03 2006 02:54 AM
. * * media myths Margie   Wed May 03 2006 10:31 AM
. * * Re: too early GuppieGrouper   Wed May 03 2006 10:09 AM
. * * Re: Visible Sat. Margie   Tue May 02 2006 09:05 AM
. * * Re: Visible Sat. Margie   Mon May 01 2006 04:28 PM
. * * Re: All Quiet on the Western Front HanKFranK   Sun Apr 30 2006 05:38 PM
. * * Re: All Quiet on the Western Front Random Chaos   Sat Apr 29 2006 06:30 PM
. * * Re: Atlantic Invest 91L GuppieGrouper   Sat Apr 29 2006 11:19 AM
. * * Re: Atlantic Invest 90L dem05   Fri Apr 28 2006 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Atlantic Invest 90L Hootowl   Fri Apr 28 2006 03:33 PM
. * * Re: National Hurricane Conference stormchazer   Thu Apr 27 2006 08:14 PM
. * * Re: National Hurricane Conference Beaumont, TX   Tue Apr 18 2006 09:33 AM
. * * NHC TPC Graphic Margie   Tue Apr 18 2006 10:15 AM
. * * Re: NHC TPC Graphic Lee-Delray   Tue Apr 18 2006 01:41 PM
. * * SST's sara33   Sun Apr 16 2006 08:57 PM
. * * Re: SST's Clark   Sun Apr 16 2006 10:05 PM
. * * Re: SST's Margie   Mon Apr 17 2006 10:33 AM
. * * Re: SST's Randrew   Wed Apr 19 2006 01:09 AM
. * * Re: SST's Atlantic Sailor   Thu Apr 20 2006 03:31 PM
. * * Re: SST's Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Apr 20 2006 08:25 PM
. * * Re: SST's Multi-Decadal Signal   Thu Apr 20 2006 10:05 PM
. * * Re: SST's firebug814   Thu Apr 20 2006 11:13 PM
. * * Re: SST's HanKFranK   Fri Apr 21 2006 12:50 AM
. * * Re: SST's Lee-Delray   Thu Apr 20 2006 04:26 PM
. * * Northeast Ryan   Tue Apr 18 2006 12:38 AM
. * * Missing Options Bloodstar   Tue Apr 18 2006 02:11 PM
. * * Re: SST's HanKFranK   Mon Apr 17 2006 12:45 AM
. * * Re: National Hurricane Conference MikeCAdministrator   Fri Apr 14 2006 05:35 PM
. * * Re: National Hurricane Conference Sheeper   Sat Apr 15 2006 02:43 PM
. * * 2006 Orlando Conference Photos ltpat228   Sat Apr 15 2006 10:30 PM
. * * Re: 2006 Orlando Conference Photos GuppieGrouper   Sun Apr 16 2006 06:05 PM
. * * Re: National Hurricane Conference ltpat228   Wed Apr 12 2006 09:40 PM
. * * Re: National Hurricane Conference MikeCAdministrator   Wed Apr 12 2006 09:54 PM
. * * Re: National Hurricane Conference ltpat228   Wed Apr 12 2006 10:31 PM
. * * Re: National Hurricane Conference Major7   Fri Apr 14 2006 10:56 AM
. * * Re: National Hurricane Conference ltpat228   Fri Apr 14 2006 05:16 PM

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