I think the big answer to your questions is: we really don't know. Everyone's got a theory, but no one's theories really mesh with everyone else's nor is there a consensus on the issue. It'll be debated for years, as it already has, and really about all we can do right now is sit back and watch. With the data in the past being of the quality that it is, modeling studies aren't going to tell us a whole lot (and even if they did, people are going to disagree on it).
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