i've been watching that thing. it does start out with very cold air aloft, so it could easily get a widespread area of convection near the center while it spins about. ssts out there are only low 20s C, very very marginal. given the location and no precedent for an early june system out there, do agree on the nil chances. cutoff low in the western atlantic should also be east of the bahamas later in the week. not a very steep contrast there, also a convoluted flow around there area and models showing two focal points for induced surface troughiness/lows. lots of dry air around, too... altogether not a very good prospect. gfs shows a weak trough developing near the south texas coast along with the current disturbed weather. not much to that. it is looking like a quiet start to june. wonder how far into the season we can make it before something starts up. HF 1433z30may
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