Quote: Outside shot at something threatening for subtropical development as we head toward the end of the coming week. Pretty good agreement amongst the available guidance (GFS, NOGAPS, UK, MM5) toward a cut-off low forming over the subtropical Atlantic somewhere near 35°N/35°W, give or take about 5 degrees latitude/longitude either way. A blocking ridge over the far northeastern Atlantic and western Europe is projected to persist through the period, allowing for this thing to sit over the open waters for a span of about 4-5 days before finally being captured by another mid-latitude feature as the block erodes.... ...Maybe 5-10% for subtropical development, almost no shot at tropical development, but we'll see what happens as the season starts on Thursday.
Clark posted the above on 05/28/06 05:51 PM. Looks like the phase diagrams are going to work early this year. This afternoon's TWD has some accent to it. Here's the Main Course...
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2006 (edited~danielw)
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE SFC ANALYSIS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 14N MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...A WIND SHIFT AND LOW-MID LEVEL VORTICITY STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT IN THE VIS DERIVED WINDS. THIS WAVE IS ASSISTING IN TRIGGERING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN THE ITCZ.
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