that little sw caribbean-to-nw atlantic low keeps showing up in model runs, so it is beginning to merit some attention. gfs might have its finger on something, considering that the awkward little system over texas now was just recently a phantom, johnny-come-lately feature in earlier runs. if the evolution is correct, the current little pulse moving into the area is encountering upper diffluence and synoptic rising motions over the sw caribbean. there's usually a little convergence line down there, and perhaps it can help induce some turning (along with old convective or whatever focal mechanisms are in place) and get the process started. if anything pops down there and the models are look for a weak/sheared system to ride up west of jamaica over the weekend and over cuba early next week. depending on how much of a system can form, the degree of feedback into the subtropics could cause a system to ride up the coast or more likely along a baroclinic boundary out to sea to the canadian maritimes. all speculation at this point, as of right now nothing substantial is going. by the weekend we'll know if something is going to form, probably. there does appear to be an eastpac system spinning up; hard to say how that would affect the environment upstream. most likely it would amplify the features down there and cause a stronger jet streak to its nw... or over it. either option would result in different outcomes (help it or kill it).
just wanted to toss a couple of other things out. margie found one of the BEST articles i've ever seen on the issue of global warming, and how polarized the issue is. i'm thoroughly amazed at how honestly the guy approached things... very rare to see things like this in the media. if you want to see both sides of the issue treated fairly, take a look. i am taken aback--such honesty and fairness.
the other is some mentions of jeff masters. the guy is DR. jeff masters, which is two degrees above myself (one very soon, God willing). i don't take the position on global warming he does, but i do read everything he writes because he's a hell of a lot more knowledgeable about a lot of things than i am. i won't say the same applies for clark, because clark evans is a name that will be associated with good meteorological research and hurricane expertise for years to come, i believe. but in the grand scheme of things, i'm just a moderator here who will hopefully have a masters in geography/climate specialized in the very near future. to make an analogy, i don't build the planes like some of these people.. i just try to fly 'em. HF 0543z02june
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