MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 132 PM EDT FRI JUN 02 2006 (edited~danielw)
VALID JUN 02/1200 UTC THRU JUN 06/0000 UTC
"...PSBL TROP CYC MOVG OUT OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN... THE GFS HAS SLOWED THIS SYS DOWN OVR ITS PAST 24 HRS OF RUNS BY ABOUT 24 HRS...BUT MOST OF THE CHANGE OCCURRED BEFORE THE 00Z RUN. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT NOTHING HAS SPUN UP IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN YET DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND HOW QUICKLY THE GFS SPINS UP CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS /A MERE 3-6 HRS/..."
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 130 PM EDT FRI JUN 02 2006 (edited~danielw)
VALID 12Z MON JUN 05 2006 - 12Z FRI JUN 09 2006 "...TROPICS... POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR DEVELOPMENT S OF ACAPULCO. LESSER MODEL AGREEMENT TDA WITH AN AVG/MEAN SOLUTION USED HERE DEPICTED A WEAK TROP SYSTEM.
GFS RUNS ALONG WITH CANADIAN AND NOGAPS CONT TO LOCK ONTO THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE SRN CARRIBEAN. HAVE DEPICTED AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE W OF JAMAICA AT DAY 3 MON. ANYTHING IN THIS POSITION SHOULD RACE OUT NEWD VERY QUICKLY WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE ERN SEMICIRCLE WITH STRONG CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE DAYS 4-6. LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION INTENSITY AND EVEN DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. (emphasis added~danielw) SEE NHC DISCUSSIONS/POSSIBLE ADVISORIES FOR BOTH THE CARRIBEAN AND ERN PAC..." http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
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