HankFrank, Clark and Daniel, What are you thoughts on the surface low in the Carribean. It looks to me like the ridge pumped up by TD 2-E has progressed slowly east toward the Carribean according to the satellite data. Still, the upper pattern is out of the West at this time, which is a no go for the West Carribean at the moment. Moisture wise, I also notice that this is increasing in the area. Meanwhile, the southern gulf upper air is very dry, but upstream in New MX and Arizona it looks a litte more moist. While a strong upper level cut-off low is ongoing over Ohio and the eastern states, the upper pattern in the tropics and subtropics seem to be goin into a zonal flow across the Penninsula of Florida. A tenacious surface low always causes me to sceptically lean into pro-tropical development, which is a change from last night, so I'm eying the downstream weather at this point. With that said, I definately wouldn't put a lot of chips on the table during a game of "tropical development poker". I just think some of the observations merit a second look. If anything develops, I wouldn't personally anticipate anything more than an Arlene type system either way (very weak system but not necissarily FL panhandle bound). However, was wondering about your opinion. Let me know what you think.
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