our june noreaster near deepening near hatteras right now is over marginal ssts and deriving much of its energy from baroclinic processes. all that convection blooming near the center sure would make it interesting if it were forecast to sit there, but it should spend the rest of the week drenching new england. big plume of convection is running out ahead of it. if something were running into it right now it would be cranking, but nothing there. around central america is a huge convoluted mess. an east-west oriented upper ridge is right under the base of the deep trough in the eastern u.s., running a jet between 20-30N that is pretty much zapping everything.. not to mention a continental air mass dominates the gulf. several have quoted the musings by forecasters about low pressure trying to develop somewhere between the extreme western caribbean and the monsoon trough-like feature extending south of mexico. something ought to try to form in here, but hard to say what, where, and which models have the right idea about its evolution. until something takes over, hard to say what it'll try to do. as long as the trough remains in the east something could try coming up, especially as the atlantic ridge builds back in and starts forcing low level moisture northward. proximity to land should keep things weak, and getting something to cross from the pacific would be quite a chore. that mcc that is currently diving through louisiana was up in nebraska on monday afternoon. it's made it quite far and held together well. unlikely it can survive in the sheared/dry environment it's embedded in. impressive little oddball though. still have a weak hunch on that wave entering the caribbean circa june 13. it's still coherent in the gfs runs. time will tell. HF 0649z07june
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