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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes
Re: Possible Development
      Wed Jun 07 2006 09:59 PM

Models aren't agreeing as much today as they did yesterday, but are highlighting an increasing potential for something to spurt over to the Bay of Campeche. Still, it's about an even split; half of the models focus on the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the other half focus on the Bay of Campeche. The Canadian is nothing but persistent, but I think it's persistently out to lunch.

The reason why the models appear to be hinting at this feature moving slightly further northward and toward the Bay of Campeche is the progression of the ridge over the central US toward the east plus the northward movement of the ridge over the NW Caribbean. Previous runs suggested this latter ridge would stay squelched further southward, but now they are latching on to something implied by the ECMWF earlier in the week. This means it's about to get really, really hot across the SE US for the weekend, but it also means that the Bay of Campeche may open up.

The northern Gulf coast is not under threat from anything that gets going unless this feature were to persist in the Bay of Campeche for about a week, which I feel is pretty unlikely. The ridging is going to be too strong and there is no feature on the way that will be nearly strong enough to capture this feature and turn it further northward. Simply put, either the energy is split apart into the EPac and the frontal disturbance extending from a cold-core low near New England into the vicinity of Cuba...or we get a broad area of low pressure somewhere in all of that mess near the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, with competing interests between the Bay of Campeche and the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

I still feel EPac development is more likely than anything; it's highly unlikely that we get both, as any developing disturbance in either basin will likely draw moisture away from and begin to shear apart the other feature. Nevertheless, it's a bit more interesting than before. After last year's Bay of Campeche trio (Bret, Gert, and Jose), I said I wouldn't even dare definitively say "yes" or "no" on something getting going down there; we'll just go with it being an outside possibility as of now. Shear would be a bit too great and dry air a bit too prevalent (plus land influences) to see anything significant there or anywhere.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins MikeCAdministrator Wed Jun 07 2006 09:59 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins typhoon_tip   Sun Jun 04 2006 09:13 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins dem05   Mon Jun 05 2006 12:33 AM
. * * Carribean... dem05   Mon Jun 05 2006 01:27 AM
. * * Re: Carribean... Clark   Mon Jun 05 2006 07:30 PM
. * * Re: Carribean... dem05   Tue Jun 06 2006 01:34 AM
. * * Re: Carribean... HanKFranK   Tue Jun 06 2006 03:41 AM
. * * Re: Carribean... MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jun 06 2006 01:51 PM
. * * Re: Carribean...and midwest???! MapMaster   Tue Jun 06 2006 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Carribean...and midwest???! Storm Hunter   Tue Jun 06 2006 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Carribean...and midwest???! SoFlA1A   Tue Jun 06 2006 05:28 PM
. * * Re: Carribean...and midwest???! dem05   Tue Jun 06 2006 11:53 PM
. * * Re: Carribean...and midwest???! HanKFranK   Wed Jun 07 2006 01:49 AM
. * * Re: Carribean...and midwest???! Rinalda   Wed Jun 07 2006 07:59 AM
. * * Excerpts danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 07 2006 09:02 AM
. * * Re: Interpolations MapMaster   Wed Jun 07 2006 09:16 AM
. * * Re: Interpolations danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 07 2006 09:33 AM
. * * Re: E of Bahamas MapMaster   Wed Jun 07 2006 01:27 PM
. * * Re: E of Bahamas Jenny   Wed Jun 07 2006 01:54 PM
. * * Re: E of Bahamas MapMaster   Wed Jun 07 2006 02:41 PM
. * * 93e NewWatcher   Wed Jun 07 2006 02:58 PM
. * * Re: 93e danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 07 2006 03:14 PM
. * * Re: 93e hobblehead   Wed Jun 07 2006 05:15 PM
. * * Re: 93e visage   Wed Jun 07 2006 05:47 PM
. * * Re: 93e CaneTrackerInSoFl   Wed Jun 07 2006 05:55 PM
. * * More Discussion Excerpts danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 07 2006 07:25 PM
. * * Re: 93e brassy   Wed Jun 07 2006 07:19 PM
. * * Possible Development 00cj   Wed Jun 07 2006 07:25 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 07 2006 07:31 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development Storm Hunter   Wed Jun 07 2006 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development Storm Cooper   Wed Jun 07 2006 08:52 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development Storm Hunter   Wed Jun 07 2006 09:10 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 07 2006 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development Clark   Wed Jun 07 2006 09:59 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development Storm Cooper   Wed Jun 07 2006 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development wereallgonnadie   Wed Jun 07 2006 09:48 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development CaneTrackerInSoFl   Wed Jun 07 2006 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development Clark   Wed Jun 07 2006 10:03 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development Storm Hunter   Wed Jun 07 2006 10:15 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development Margie   Wed Jun 07 2006 10:38 PM
. * * Re: Possible Development 00cj   Thu Jun 08 2006 01:12 AM
. * * Re: Possible Development Major7   Thu Jun 08 2006 01:28 AM
. * * Models danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 08 2006 02:02 AM
. * * Re: Models Hugh   Thu Jun 08 2006 08:10 AM
. * * Re: Models twiztedsizterII   Thu Jun 08 2006 10:57 AM
. * * Re: Models twiztedsizterII   Thu Jun 08 2006 11:01 AM
. * * 90L NewWatcher   Thu Jun 08 2006 11:10 AM
. * * I don't believe it Margie   Thu Jun 08 2006 10:57 AM
. * * 90L NewWatcher   Thu Jun 08 2006 10:56 AM
. * * Re: 90L MapMaster   Thu Jun 08 2006 11:11 AM
. * * Re: 90L Storm Hunter   Thu Jun 08 2006 11:31 AM
. * * Re: 90L CaneTrackerInSoFl   Thu Jun 08 2006 11:43 AM
. * * Re: 90L MapMaster   Thu Jun 08 2006 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Models HanKFranK   Thu Jun 08 2006 04:02 AM
. * * Re: Models danielwAdministrator   Thu Jun 08 2006 06:10 AM
. * * Re: Possible Development danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 07 2006 08:50 PM
. * * Re: Carribean...and midwest???! Nateball   Wed Jun 07 2006 07:45 AM
. * * NC/SC Coast zacros   Tue Jun 06 2006 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Carribean... amonty   Mon Jun 05 2006 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Carribean... CaneTrackerInSoFl   Mon Jun 05 2006 11:20 AM
. * * Re: Carribean... doug   Mon Jun 05 2006 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Carribean... Storm Cooper   Mon Jun 05 2006 02:53 PM
. * * Re: Carribean... Lost   Mon Jun 05 2006 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Carribean... Storm Cooper   Mon Jun 05 2006 01:37 PM
. * * Re: ST development MapMaster   Mon Jun 05 2006 01:49 PM
. * * Re: ST development CaneTrackerInSoFl   Mon Jun 05 2006 01:50 PM
. * * Re: ST development Storm Cooper   Mon Jun 05 2006 02:11 PM
. * * Re: ST development MapMaster   Mon Jun 05 2006 02:38 PM
. * * Re: Carribean... Lee-Delray   Mon Jun 05 2006 11:07 AM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins AgnesOfHell   Thu Jun 01 2006 10:51 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins wereallgonnadie   Thu Jun 01 2006 09:51 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins Steve H1   Thu Jun 01 2006 10:28 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins Storm Hunter   Thu Jun 01 2006 10:52 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins Cindi   Fri Jun 02 2006 07:19 AM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins CaneTrackerInSoFl   Thu Jun 01 2006 11:05 PM
. * * watch this HanKFranK   Fri Jun 02 2006 12:43 AM
. * * Re: watch this EDU   Fri Jun 02 2006 06:45 PM
. * * Friday Afternoon TWD danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 02 2006 07:59 PM
. * * Re: Friday Afternoon TWD Margie   Fri Jun 02 2006 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Friday Afternoon TWD John C   Fri Jun 02 2006 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Friday Afternoon TWD Storm Cooper   Fri Jun 02 2006 08:33 PM
. * * Re: Friday Afternoon TWD danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 02 2006 09:37 PM
. * * Re: Friday Afternoon TWD Margie   Fri Jun 02 2006 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Friday Afternoon TWD CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Jun 03 2006 07:34 PM
. * * Stereo Storms danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 03 2006 08:28 PM
. * * Re: Stereo Storms GuppieGrouper   Sat Jun 03 2006 09:34 PM
. * * Re: Stereo Storms danielwAdministrator   Sat Jun 03 2006 09:44 PM
. * * Re: Stereo Storms Storm Hunter   Sat Jun 03 2006 11:53 PM
. * * Re: Stereo Storms SirCane   Sun Jun 04 2006 12:03 AM
. * * Re: Stereo Storms dem05   Sun Jun 04 2006 12:21 AM
. * * Rainfall danielwAdministrator   Sun Jun 04 2006 01:46 AM
. * * Re: Rainfall dem05   Sun Jun 04 2006 04:03 AM
. * * Re: Rainfall Storm Hunter   Sun Jun 04 2006 09:46 AM
. * * Re: Rainfall CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun Jun 04 2006 12:53 PM
. * * Re: Rainfall ticka1   Sun Jun 04 2006 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Rainfall 00cj   Sun Jun 04 2006 07:01 PM
. * * west carib system HanKFranK   Sun Jun 04 2006 02:13 AM
. * * Re: west carib system GuppieGrouper   Sun Jun 04 2006 09:05 PM
. * * Friday Afternoon-Caribbean Discussion danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 02 2006 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Friday Afternoon-HPC Discussions danielwAdministrator   Fri Jun 02 2006 10:35 PM
. * * Re: watch this Hootowl   Fri Jun 02 2006 08:45 AM
. * * Re: Out by the Azores broncostorm   Fri Jun 02 2006 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Out by the Azores Hootowl   Fri Jun 02 2006 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Wind Shear hurricane_run   Fri Jun 02 2006 02:56 PM
. * * Re: Wind Shear Steve   Fri Jun 02 2006 03:52 PM
. * * Re: Out by the Azores Storm Hunter   Fri Jun 02 2006 01:35 PM
. * * Re: watch this doug   Fri Jun 02 2006 08:34 AM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins Clark   Thu Jun 01 2006 05:23 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins Storm Hunter   Thu Jun 01 2006 06:25 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins ShanaTX   Thu Jun 01 2006 06:39 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins Rich B   Thu Jun 01 2006 06:42 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins ShanaTX   Thu Jun 01 2006 07:41 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins Thirdcoast   Thu Jun 01 2006 07:51 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins doug   Thu Jun 01 2006 07:24 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins Storm Hunter   Thu Jun 01 2006 07:32 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins Storm Cooper   Thu Jun 01 2006 07:38 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins Storm Hunter   Thu Jun 01 2006 07:19 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins orangejack   Thu Jun 01 2006 12:31 AM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins vvvteddybearvvv   Thu Jun 01 2006 12:35 AM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins Margie   Thu Jun 01 2006 08:00 AM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins lost   Thu Jun 01 2006 09:36 AM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins Margie   Thu Jun 01 2006 11:51 AM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins Genesis   Thu Jun 01 2006 12:13 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins Margie   Thu Jun 01 2006 12:29 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins vonkamp   Thu Jun 01 2006 03:31 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins charlottefl   Thu Jun 01 2006 03:51 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins Wingman51   Thu Jun 01 2006 05:00 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins HURRICANELONNY   Thu Jun 01 2006 01:12 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins Rich B   Thu Jun 01 2006 01:15 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins Steve   Thu Jun 01 2006 01:36 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins Rich B   Thu Jun 01 2006 01:31 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins Margie   Thu Jun 01 2006 02:49 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins Beaumont, TX   Thu Jun 01 2006 03:10 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins Ed in Va   Thu Jun 01 2006 02:04 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins gailwarning   Thu Jun 01 2006 02:23 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins Allison   Thu Jun 01 2006 02:43 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins ftlaudbob   Thu Jun 01 2006 02:38 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins Scrappy   Thu Jun 01 2006 02:36 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins Major7   Thu Jun 01 2006 12:05 PM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins AgentB   Thu Jun 01 2006 11:39 AM
. * * Re: The 2006 Hurricane Season Begins CaneTrackerInSoFl   Thu Jun 01 2006 12:21 AM

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