Models are coming out. Apparently the GFS isn't seeing the High Pressure Ridge that it had seen earlier. At 156 hours, 12Z next Wednesday, it's forecasting a 1007mb surface Low just south of the Cameron to Intracoastal City, LA area. Not much of a signature, and only one closed isobar, at this time. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
For those that might have missed the earlier parts of this thread. There is a wide area of difference between the models. Almost all of the tropical models are developing a system in the NW Caribbean, GOM or E PAC, over the next 4-7 days.
The last run of the GFS took this system into Northern Mexico. The first few runs of the Canadian Global model brought the system ashore between Panama City, FL and New Orleans, LA.
We will have to keep a watch on the future models. And be sure to consult local NWS and NHC Official forecasts.
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