Central Florida Hurricane Center 2012

6AM June 10th
The system has not formed overnight, and has basically held it's organization. Conditions are still favorable for development and if it develops, sometime today would be most likely. A recon flight is scheduled for later today.

See Clark's blog below for more information.

6PM June 9th
A surface low is beginning to form, and condititions are improving in the area, a Tropical Depression may form tonight or early tomorrow. Folks along Cuba, and the Southeastern Gulf, including Florida, will want to keep an eye on this system -- effects would be felt around Monday to Tuesday along the US. The GFDL model is agressively develpoing the system, but it is still too early to say what will occur.

Most of the weather will be on the east side of the system, so it could bring a good soaking to parts of Florida. The further east the system stays, the more likely it won't encounter shear.

The chance for development graph for this system:
Code:


forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
          [---------------*------]

10AM June 9th Update

This morning the spread of models have shifted mostly northward for the next 2-3 days. Most runs are showing a weak tropical system crossing north Florida around next Tuesday. Some models, like the NOGAPS and European do not track a very coherent system, but really blow it up in a baroclinic (non tropical) drive up the east coast.

Organization likely will not happen today (too close to land), but by tomorrow the upper vorticity maximim currently northeast of the system will have dropped further southwest and begun breaking off from the trough, which will likely weaken and lift away over the next few days. Then some ridging should build in... Depending on how this scenario plays out, is dependent on where the system chooses to consolidate, it could get into just the right place and develop a good outflow jet streak around its northern semicircle.

The chance for development graph for this system:
Code:


forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
          [--------*-------------]

Regardless, it looks like parts of Florida may be in for a drought buster type of rain going into next week. And dependent on how it plays out, whether it pumps the ridge and causes the pattern to amplify some, it could also make a run up the east coast, transitioning into another noreaster.

This is not a sure bet, however, as some oddball model runs (nam) keep insisting on a more northwesterly movement. This isn't impossible, but as time passes it seems to be becoming increasingly unlikely. The system appears to be setting up show east of the Yucatan, and that s where tt will likely stay.

(Update source from Hank)

Original Update
There is a broad surface low pressure system in the western Caribbean, near Belize in Central America that may be worth watching for persistence over the next few days.

This is an area that has seen storms form in June before, however, the area around it is only marginally there to sustain or grow a system, so there is doubt it will become much if it does develop. It is also close to land, and will give Central America a good soaking.

The chance for development graph for this system:
Code:


forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
          [-------*--------------]

Recon flights are tentatively scheduled in case something does develop.

It is much too early to speculate on where this system may go, or even if it survives or develops. It could go westward toward Mexico/Texas, or it could stick to a more northerly track and head for Florida. Too early to tell, though, and we'll certainly watch it into the weekend.

Currently it has no discernible center, and just as many factors working against it as for it. However, it is likely to enter the Gulf, so its something to watch.

More to come...

Event Related Links
Stormcarib reports from the islands

Cancun Radar Western tip of Cuba radar
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

90L:

Animated Skeetobite Plot

Animated Model Plot of 90L
Model Plot of 90L (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system

Post Extras

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995

NEWS

CURRENT STORMS

COMMUNICATION

STORM DATA

CONTENT

FOLLOW US

ADS