Dry Air. That seems to be one of the points that the models are having some trouble with. Reading some of the discussions. They are forecasting the subtropical jetstream to move back north towards the Gulf Coast. That would allow the tropical moisture to move more to the North. Some of the forecasts are giving Florida a better chance of showers than they have had lately.
I just checked all of the Area Fcst Discussions from Brownsville,TX to Key West, FL. There wasn't much more than a mention of the forecast system in most of them. Lake Charles and Mobile seemed to have a bit more information. But...the afternoon AFD's aren't known to have a lot of information in them. With respect to extended forecasts.
I noticed that one or two of the HPC discussions were questioning the possibility of more than one tropical system/ wave over the next few week. They also mentioned the wave in the Eastern Atlantic moving a bit faster in the latest model run. That should put it passing through the Mid-Caribbean around the 12th or 13th. I'll have to check the updates on that.
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