As a non meteorologist/wx hobbiest...My hunches are based on some obs in the water vapor loop. I notice the dry air is pushing harder south in the western gulf. My thinking was a possible upper low/ cutoff may evolve over in the western half of the gulf. The flow around it may pull moister air further north in the eastern gulf. At the same time a mean flow may develop that also pulls up the possible tropical low like the models indicate. I notice the moist air is already gaining latitude and working its way up the souther penninsula of florida now. Of course, this is one hobbiests point of view, but my observations may make a lot of sense and may explain those forecast discos too.
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