the spread of models is now mostly northward for the next 2-3 days. pretty much every one, most runs, are showing a weak tropical system crossing north florida around next tuesday. the nogaps and euro don't track a very coherent system, but really blow it up in a baroclinic drive up the east coast. they're taking it close enough to the carolina coast, cape cod, and nova scotia for some bad weather at least. the timing of all this is questionable as models vary in how far nnw the system originally wanders, whether it's very organized or not, and where it is initialized. the consensus for now looks as good a forecast as any. i don't expect it will consolidate today. perhaps get better organized, cause a special statement or something. by tomorrow the upper vorticity max currently ne of the system will have dropped further southwest and begun breaking off from the trough... which is shown weakening and lifting over the next few days. some ridging should build in... dependent on where the system chooses to consolidate, it could get into just the right place and develop a good outflow jet streak around its northern semicircle. regardless of whether the system forms, it looks like parts of florida may be in for a droughbuster rain going into next week. dependent on how it plays out, whether it pumps the ridge and causes the pattern to amplify some, it could also make a run up the east coast, transitioning into another noreaster. still some oddball model runs (nam) insisting on nw movement. that isn't impossible although becoming increasingly unlikely. the system appears to be setting up show east of the yucatan, and that's where i reckon it'll stay. HF 1430z09june
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