hmmm, 5am and it's not a depression yet, and frankly I don't blame them for not upgrading it. The system still looks very disorganized with most of the convection firing up to the northand east of the low pressure center. T-numbers are holding at 1.5 as well. so no additional organiaztion indicated from that tool.
(do find it interesting that the pressure is down to 1005 Mb. There's the chance that they could end up going straight to TS status if the system remains disorganized)
Interestingly enough, the LLC still seems to be heading NW to NNW, which could run it right into that high velocity wind band just to the north of the center. (from 87.5W 20N to 80W 25N) though it looks like the system is starting to push that jet north.
Also interesting is the new band of convection firing to the south of the system. While it's located some distance from the LLC, it wouldn't take much to organize that into a feeder band and help crank the system up into a full blown TD. There is a LLC, but with the Midlevel concentration still not co-aligned, it's going to take a while for the system to get together. (though the northern convection could be enough to push the system over the edge, once it gets any sort of convection over the center.
As far as where it's going to go? well, if the door opens as the models predict, the system will slowly take its NNW movement and shift N then NNE then NE.
THe models are tending to show a land fall anywhere from 3 - 6 days out anywhere from the pandhandle to Tampa. Except the UK, which tends to weaken the feature and send it towards the Texas Coast. Nogaps also seems to be losing the feature entirely, but pulls up a strong low pressure to appear on the atlantic coast near JAX after losing the system.
Don't see any thing new on the next week. so all eyes are focused.
19/18/0905 <- My prediction (2013 Predictions)
00/00/00/00 <- Year Totals
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