I spent a lot of time considering whether or not I would post this year, but when I got the 8am advisory, it reminded me how good this board is. So, I guess ya'll are stuck with me again.
Anyway, last year Arlene was 2 days earlier than this guy. The first hurricane wasn't until July, and this one doesn't seem to have much potential for strengthening too much. I guess I'm just trying to draw a way too early parallel. Consider this unformatted table, which I got from the NHC page when I couldn't find the plot I wanted. The average number of tropical storms in June is 0.5. The average hitting the US in June is 0.12. I know that one observation does not mean anything, but I'm really dreading this season.
Total and Average Number of Tropical Storms by Month Month Tropical Storms$ Hurricanes U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes Total Average Total Average Total Average JANUARY-APRIL 5 * 1 * 0 * MAY 18 0.1 4 * 0 * JUNE 76 0.5 28 0.2 19 0.12 JULY 94 0.6 47 0.3 23 0.15 AUGUST 336 2.2 214 1.4 74 0.48 SEPTEMBER 448 2.9 309 2.0 102 0.67 OCTOBER 273 1.8 154 1.0 50 0.33 NOVEMBER 58 0.4 38 0.2 5 0.03 DECEMBER 8 0.1 4 * 0 *
YEAR 1316 8.5 799 5.2 273 1.78
-------------------- Terra M. Dassau, Ph.D.
(Chemistry, however, so don't think I'm an expert!)
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