tip: but by saying "if it does" you are indicating not just that you're not sure if the models are right, but that you think they are not right, at least that's the way it comes across to me. Of course I may be reading too much into what you're saying because I don't buy into the models at this point.
On a side note... reading the NHC advisory package, I take it that the Cuban authorities are ignoring this storm. NHC says that warnings and watches are recommended for certain provinces, but they don't say that the warnings/watches have been posted. Given the location of the most active weather associated with the system, that does not make much sense.
ETA: Looking at the Key West radar... circulation is very apparent, although the LLC is off the radar. Nasty weather may approach the keys very soon.
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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