Well, after a long post, just to have it somehow erased before I could send it, I think I'll make this quick. Some of you guys ( and gals ) have made reference to a secondary low. I beleive this surface low off Belize and "racing" NNE, will couple with the broad mid level low to its north. I beleive that this new reorganized system will be relocated after proper vis. satellite confirms surface data, and that sometime tomm. between 12Z and 15Z we will finally have our first named system of this 2006 Atlantic Season. Of course most interesting will be how a new initiallization will impact all model output, and my guess is that finally we will see model conformity but also a changed forecast.
I beleive that we may perhaps see this system tomm. a.m south of Isle of Pines, but moving due north to NNE. Somewhat greater deepening and strengthing might occur if motion is into the trough, and thus the southwesterly vertical shear will be slightly less impinging. My guess is that we may see a very very very wet landfall over Southwestern Florida between Naples and Tampa and would not be surprised if intensity is just under, but close to Hurricane strength at landfall. That could pose 10-15 " of rain for parts of S. Florida.
I have chased Hurricanes for years, and their landfall and impact on the coast always amazed me. Though pictures on a screen, the cyclogenisis of tropical systems is equally amazing and often so complex.
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