The 5:00am discussion implies that the current forecast is very uncertain. I think this little section at the end tells a lot.:
Quote: HOWEVER...A SECOND SCENARIO IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...IN WHICH THE DEPRESSION IS SEPARATED FROM ITS DEEP CONVECTION BY THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...LEAVING A WEAK VORTEX TO LINGER AND DEGENERATE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IF DAYLIGHT IMAGERY AND/OR RECONNAISSANCE DATA CONFIRM THAT THE WESTERN CENTER IS THE ONLY CENTER...THEN SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY.
Just will have to wait and see. For now, I think this storms level of danger and peril is so small that there is no reason to change the forecast around until there is something tangible that can be grasped onto.
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