...THEREFORE...IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A PARTIALLY COHERENT VERTICAL STRUCTURE...IT WOULD RESPOND TO THIS STEERING REGIME BY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...IF ALBERTO BECOMES EVEN MORE SEVERELY SHEARED... IT WOULD MORE LIKELY RESPOND TO SHALLOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW AND REMAIN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE WEAKENING. THIS LATTER SCENARIO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...ALBEIT SLOWER THAN...THE TRACK PREDICTION FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...GFDN...U.K. MET...AND NOGAPS MODEL TRACKS.emphasis added~danielw
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY.
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