A little bit more on what would cause Alberto to slow and head more westward, other than it not being vertically deep (i.e. strong) enough to be caught by the mid-latitude flow and sent to the northeast.
All of the available model guidance, despite disagreements in the track of Alberto, forecast a relatively strong area of high pressure to build south and eastward from central Canada into the southeast US. For a relatively weak storm, the steering currents are found moreso at lower levels -- think closer to 700-850mb -- than for a deeper storm. These mid/upper level features referenced in my last post generally don't extend that far down; they are generally at 500-600mb and higher. Whether or not they spawn a change at lower levels plus how much Alberto intensifies will determine whether or not they will be sufficient to capture the storm.
If they are not, the building ridge will likely screech Alberto's motion to a halt not far from the coastline, somewhere between New Orleans and Apalachicola. A drifting motion, potentially northwestward, would likely ensue. The overall storm would not be very strong under such a scenario, but the influx of moisture would likely result in a very wet first half of the week to areas east of the center. Remember -- you don't have to have a very strong storm to see a significant impact from it; T.S. Allison in 2001 caused massive flooding along the northern Gulf coast despite being inland much of the time. I'm not saying that is going to happen here by any means, but flooding is the biggest threat from Alberto -- no matter where it ends up going.
The most likely bet, at least according to the NHC and the available model guidance, is for a recurvature toward the NE. We might see this change later today, however, as the environment evolves.
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Re: Shear vs Tropical Storm Alberto
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