the heavier convection that was drifting east from the center earlier is weakening and new convection is firing near the core. alberto is biding its time. i'm personally going to stick with the NE turn. the low level flow that pushed the system nw over the past few days is weakening ahead of the next amplification, and will probably allow the center to hang closer to the convection.. maybe to a point where the center is reforming or elongating towards it. when it starts nw there may be a baroclinic type burst of intensification... and i'm reckoning that extratropical transformation could occur rather quickly. if it gets stuck, then it will likely die the slow death described already by those advocating it staying west... or just meander west under the continental ridge and remain disorganized. alberto is a classic example of how ambiguous the usage of the 'subtropical storm' classification is. it has a warm core and tropical origin, but shear is keeping most of the deep convection away from the core most of the time. the windfield being very lopsided and the strongest winds being well away from the center as a result are the strongest selling point for it being subtropical. alas, the use of the term 'subtropical cyclone' usually only appears with late season storms that hybridize from cutoff lows, and have a clear nonfrontal hybrid structure and core transition. can see the june 13 wave catching repeat mention with the nhc discussion, and recurring in models. there's a weak suggestion with recent gfs runs that it might be a little better organized later in the week we're starting. it looks like it will stay mostly south of the upper trough digging in around 55-60w, then stay ahead of the upper low forecast to break off behind it. by later next week the wave is indicated to be under a very favorable outflow pattern in the nw caribbean, though strangely none of the models show it capitalizing on this. if much of the wave momentum stays to the south it won't get the chance. but if the hinted low can get going in the nw caribbean next week, could become a very interesting feature indeed. a fairly strong 500mb ridge is centered over the southeast at that time, but a weakness is shown in it near the texas coast, as well as an area of upper sw-erly flow. any theoretic system would respond to this by turning nw and probably north. so... if anything can fester the central gulf coast would be the potential target next weekend, if it weren't crashing into the yucatan and having to deal with that problem (staying weak, struggling further west). task at hand is alberto. i'm on the record siding with the nhc and taking it into the nw florida peninsula in a couple days. HF 2217z11june
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