Models cannot be relied upon if it's steered by it's low level environment; which right now the LLC is pretty much in a COL between two ridges, the shortwave to it's north and the upper low to it's west. The broader circulation is filled with a number of vortices within it, but as you see, all low level in nature. Clearly the broader ciruclation while well defined is more ragged than earlier, and any convection is being sheared away by upper winds. I don't have the data to tell me if it's still intact from ground up circulation wise. It's possible the upper part of the storm will detach from the lower with the deeping of the EC long wave and it's upper support enhancing it. There is no where the LLC can go right now except drift north.
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