I saw the same thing... in fact, I've seen it numerous times today. The convection bursts and then fades. Several things COULD happen, but what will is anyone's guess. One possibility that I had not considered but I'll throw out there now is that Alberto does whatever it's going to do, but the area that is over the Yucatan stays behind and eventually moves out into the Gulf or BOC. Complex doesn't begin to describe the situation. Reading Stewart's discussion was a big disappointment because it seemed to be so... simple... and it seems so strange to me.
Scott: if the models are so horrible, what do they use???
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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