I wouldn't say the NNE motion has already commenced...any definitive motion is largely being masked out by the multiple gyres rotating about the main vortex. In my view, the system is largely sitting in place, wobbling about it's main center.
I feel that the global models are generally showing too strong and too coherent of a vortex, pulling it off to the NE too soon. The best model guidance to use for this storm is the shallow-layer BAM (BAMS) coupled with an understanding of the effects of the convective asymmetry in terms of dragging the center along with it. That latter point may be the one that ultimately forces the system to the NE, where the flow is more unidirectional and toward the NE, but I think it's too early to call that a "sure bet" right now. We may well see a split of the storm, as forecast by some of the globals that keep Alberto weaker, where the old vortex is left behind to die north of where it is now and a new vortex is carried across Florida to the NE, but before sounding an "all clear" I'd like to actually see evidence that it is occurring. Thus far, that evidence doesn't exist...36hr ago, we expected to see the storm bearing down on Florida by now as it accelerated northeast. That's not happening, at least not yet.
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