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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: models
      Mon Jul 10 2006 10:49 AM

i'm with margie on that point. shear is going to damage whatever organization 96L has for the next couple of days. the formless, cdo-like, persistent convection may be masking a small low underneath, but the system is out of time as far as good environmental conditions go.
as far as its 'down the road' chances i wouldn't place them very high. globals have a variety of downstream conditions, with the nogaps and cmc showing things as more likely to act up and the other globals progressively less so. gfs is continuing its recent trend of forecasting no development through its 2-week run.
the globals do have more consensus on the eastpac acting up. the synoptic pattern is more primed for action over there, without the combined upper westerly anomalies and fast easterly flow at the low levels. there will probably be a storm or two over there during the next few days. 96L may have been a warning shot sort of like the recent pacific invest was, or it may be an almost-was that started spinning up briefly and encountered an overall unfriendly basin. most of the upper westerly anomalies in the atlantic are through the gulf-caribbean area, with less shear in the eastern atlantic and right off the east coast. it's sort of a polar opposite of what we had last july. with the mjo pulse arriving and the tendency for eastpac tropical activity to beget the upper air pattern evolution that triggers atlantic activity a few days later, we may see the basin going into late july transition over into a more favorable one for activity.
whether the upper air pattern wants to let things happen or not, ssts have assumed a lesser version of last year's cool anomalies in the eastern atlantic and warm anomalies centered further west. most of the caribbean and gulf are actually near normal, with the warmth in the basin in the northwest atlantic at higher latitudes. something tells me that it bodes for stronger blocking this fall and a threat for poleward moving hurricanes out of the tropics.
the freakish lack of activity in the pacific that was lingering from '05 seems to be normalizing for '06, so not looking for the atlantic to bear quite the burden it did last year. we still ought to run well above normal, though. there isn't an el nino to jumble things up (not that those matter all the time, i.e. 2004), and the typical july-ish synoptic pattern we're in ought to mature into something more like august before too much longer. if i had to bet, would say that one of the wave break-offs rounding the subtropical ridge will flash to life eventually. probably better chances there than in the deep tropics.
HF 1450z10july

Edited by HanKFranK (Mon Jul 10 2006 10:51 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch MikeCAdministrator Mon Jul 10 2006 10:49 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Cat 5orBust   Thu Jul 13 2006 09:40 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch cieldumort   Thu Jul 13 2006 09:46 PM
. * * Re: Reminder Storm Cooper   Thu Jul 13 2006 10:34 PM
. * * Re: Reminder Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 14 2006 01:23 AM
. * * Re: Reminder reedzone   Fri Jul 14 2006 01:36 AM
. * * Re: Reminder cieldumort   Fri Jul 14 2006 01:34 AM
. * * Re: Reminder harmlc.ath.cx   Fri Jul 14 2006 06:06 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch typhoon_tip   Thu Jul 13 2006 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch royener   Thu Jul 13 2006 04:47 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Margie   Thu Jul 13 2006 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Lee-Delray   Thu Jul 13 2006 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch reedzone   Thu Jul 13 2006 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch h2ocean   Thu Jul 13 2006 08:06 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch sara33   Thu Jul 13 2006 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch reedzone   Thu Jul 13 2006 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch lawgator   Wed Jul 12 2006 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Firebug814   Wed Jul 12 2006 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch cieldumort   Wed Jul 12 2006 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Cat 5orBust   Wed Jul 12 2006 11:25 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch cieldumort   Wed Jul 12 2006 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch mrsdejesus   Wed Jul 12 2006 05:17 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch sara33   Wed Jul 12 2006 06:33 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch mrsdejesus   Wed Jul 12 2006 07:47 PM
. * * the link HanKFranK   Wed Jul 12 2006 07:56 PM
. * * Hank Frank's Discussion LoisCane   Thu Jul 13 2006 01:23 AM
. * * Re: Hank Frank's Discussion doug   Thu Jul 13 2006 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Hank Frank's Discussion nl   Thu Jul 13 2006 12:12 PM
. * * madden-julian HanKFranK   Thu Jul 13 2006 12:45 PM
. * * Re: madden-julian Genesis   Thu Jul 13 2006 01:08 PM
. * * Whoa!!c whats that next to the Cape Verde Islands?? possible deppression?? reedzone   Thu Jul 13 2006 12:41 PM
. * * Re: Whoa!!c whats that next to the Cape Verde Islands?? possible deppression?? MapMaster   Thu Jul 13 2006 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Whoa!!c whats that next to the Cape Verde Islands?? possible deppression?? reedzone   Thu Jul 13 2006 01:58 PM
. * * Re: the link mrsdejesus   Wed Jul 12 2006 09:03 PM
. * * shear disneyfanfl   Thu Jul 13 2006 12:42 AM
. * * Re: the link Storm Cooper   Wed Jul 12 2006 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch scottsvb   Wed Jul 12 2006 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch cieldumort   Wed Jul 12 2006 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Lee-Delray   Wed Jul 12 2006 12:09 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Lee-Delray   Wed Jul 12 2006 08:20 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Nateball   Wed Jul 12 2006 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Steve H1   Wed Jul 12 2006 09:30 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch andy1tom   Wed Jul 12 2006 01:19 PM
. * * trends, averages, etc HanKFranK   Wed Jul 12 2006 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Tropics Guy   Wed Jul 12 2006 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch ChrisT   Wed Jul 12 2006 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch typhoon_tip   Tue Jul 11 2006 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Cat 5orBust   Tue Jul 11 2006 06:33 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch dem05   Tue Jul 11 2006 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch harmlc.ath.cx   Tue Jul 11 2006 07:27 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch h2ocean   Tue Jul 11 2006 07:45 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch dem05   Tue Jul 11 2006 08:02 PM
. * * Watching danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 11 2006 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Watching Storm Cooper   Tue Jul 11 2006 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Watching dem05   Tue Jul 11 2006 11:03 PM
. * * Re: Watching dem05   Tue Jul 11 2006 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Watching dem05   Tue Jul 11 2006 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Watching Random Chaos   Wed Jul 12 2006 12:28 AM
. * * Re: Watching cieldumort   Wed Jul 12 2006 04:23 AM
. * * Night Watching danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 11 2006 10:53 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Cat 5orBust   Mon Jul 10 2006 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Beaumont, TX   Sun Jul 09 2006 03:15 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 09 2006 03:32 PM
. * * Other Areas danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 09 2006 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Other Areas Storm Cooper   Sun Jul 09 2006 08:04 PM
. * * Re: Other Areas dem05   Sun Jul 09 2006 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Other Areas Storm Cooper   Sun Jul 09 2006 09:17 PM
. * * models LoisCane   Mon Jul 10 2006 01:15 AM
. * * Re: models cieldumort   Mon Jul 10 2006 03:11 AM
. * * Re: models dem05   Mon Jul 10 2006 03:30 AM
. * * Re: models Margie   Mon Jul 10 2006 09:23 AM
. * * Re: models HanKFranK   Mon Jul 10 2006 10:49 AM
. * * Re: models Mike   Mon Jul 10 2006 10:42 AM
. * * Re: models Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Jul 10 2006 11:05 AM
. * * mas HanKFranK   Mon Jul 10 2006 10:54 AM
. * * Re: models Storm Cooper   Mon Jul 10 2006 09:17 AM
. * * Re: models sara33   Mon Jul 10 2006 07:39 PM
. * * Re: models harmlc.ath.cx   Mon Jul 10 2006 08:19 PM
. * * Re: models typhoon_tip   Mon Jul 10 2006 11:12 PM
. * * Re: models Storm Hunter   Mon Jul 10 2006 11:23 PM
. * * Re: models sara33   Mon Jul 10 2006 08:30 PM
. * * Re: models sara33   Mon Jul 10 2006 11:06 PM
. * * Re: models danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 10 2006 11:29 PM
. * * Re: models DaveH   Tue Jul 11 2006 08:01 AM
. * * Re: models Solak   Tue Jul 11 2006 09:57 AM
. * * Re: models Margie   Tue Jul 11 2006 10:38 AM
. * * Re: models amonty   Tue Jul 11 2006 10:49 AM
. * * Re: models Ed in Va   Tue Jul 11 2006 11:02 AM
. * * Re: models Ron Basso   Tue Jul 11 2006 11:25 AM
. * * Re: models Margie   Tue Jul 11 2006 11:38 AM
. * * Re: Off Fl, headed NE MapMaster   Tue Jul 11 2006 11:46 AM
. * * NHC site? madmumbler   Tue Jul 11 2006 02:33 PM
. * * Re: NHC site? HURRICANELONNY   Tue Jul 11 2006 02:58 PM
. * * Re: NHC site? HanKFranK   Tue Jul 11 2006 03:15 PM
. * * Re: NHC site? Storm Hunter   Tue Jul 11 2006 03:09 PM
. * * eastpac is going Margie   Mon Jul 10 2006 11:31 PM
. * * Re: eastpac is going cieldumort   Tue Jul 11 2006 01:04 AM
. * * Re: eastpac is going HanKFranK   Tue Jul 11 2006 02:36 AM
. * * Floaters danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 11 2006 06:48 AM
. * * Re: eastpac is going hurricaneguy   Tue Jul 11 2006 12:04 AM
. * * Re: eastpac is going Margie   Tue Jul 11 2006 12:08 AM
. * * Re: models Margie   Mon Jul 10 2006 08:01 PM
. * * Re: models NewWatcher   Mon Jul 10 2006 07:50 PM
. * * Re: models sara33   Mon Jul 10 2006 08:57 AM
. * * Re: models LoisCane   Mon Jul 10 2006 06:32 AM
. * * Re: Other Areas dem05   Sun Jul 09 2006 11:16 PM
. * * Re: Other Areas hurricaneguy   Sun Jul 09 2006 11:47 PM
. * * Poll LoisCane   Mon Jul 10 2006 01:08 AM
. * * Re: Other Areas stormchazer   Sun Jul 09 2006 09:42 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch dem05   Sun Jul 09 2006 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch typhoon_tip   Sun Jul 09 2006 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Margie   Sun Jul 09 2006 12:18 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Colleen A.   Sun Jul 09 2006 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Margie   Sun Jul 09 2006 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch typhoon_tip   Mon Jul 10 2006 01:08 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch ticka1   Sun Jul 09 2006 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch NewWatcher   Sun Jul 09 2006 01:23 PM
. * * 96L/closer one HanKFranK   Sun Jul 09 2006 01:43 PM
. * * Re: 96L/closer one dem05   Sun Jul 09 2006 03:07 PM
. * * Re: 96L/closer one dem05   Sun Jul 09 2006 02:34 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch stormchaser807   Sun Jul 09 2006 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch dem05   Sun Jul 09 2006 01:56 PM
. * * oh mike thank you LoisCane   Sun Jul 09 2006 09:57 AM
. * * Re: oh mike thank you Colleen A.   Sun Jul 09 2006 10:50 AM
. * * Re: oh mike thank you HCW   Sun Jul 09 2006 11:11 AM

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