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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: models
      Mon Jul 10 2006 11:12 PM

harmlc.ath.cx ,

Some conceptual information you may find interesting. Last year was big for what is known as the "Bahama Bomber" in some tropical circles. Katrina was one of these...

I personally observed fewer than normal "strong" tropical waves emerging off Africa's west coast last year. A hypothesis I have been toying with is that many weaker than normal waves were present. These then availed of unusually persistent favorable environment existing across the Caribbean, Gulf and Bahamas. A weak wave doesn't mean it can't be a seed, is what is important to remember...particularly if the other physics are overwhelming. Some of those can include unusually strong and persistent U/A anticyclone and higher than normal SSTs.

As to your dust concerns, if we use last year as an example: It is noted, during July last year there was a large dust cloud over the Atlantic, between Africa and Islands.

There is and has been speculatoin that this year's activity may have more central Atlantic origins, than did 2005. If that is true, one climate-based aspect we must remember is that those regions tend to fire up their engines at a later date. There is time between now and August for recession of the westerlies more polarward. If that happens, we would likely see a rapid reduction in the amount of tropical wave relative shear, because deeper layer easterlies would take over. The shear you speak of should relax - no guarantees.

Once last year's Cape Verdi season came to life, we witnessed a kind of "split" in the tracks of developed TCs. The dust had settled, the shear had relaxed, but the darn things started curving N before reaching 50W... Meanwhile, the western Caribbean kept the ensemble line cranking. Some how, wave activity in those later summer months were fueling both.

Still, by this time last year Arlene, Brett, Cindy had already been recorded, while Dennis was decaying inland. At one point, Dennis had 130kt max sustained! All of these failed to develop E of the Leeward and Windward Islands (most were Caribbean developers). So, unless some spectacularly explosive stuff takes off, we are probably destined to less than last years performance for these earlier innings - in fact, that is likely a lock. I am, however, intrigued by the ideas for more activity expectation in the middle Atlantic. We'll just have to wait and see where the conveyor establishes and how difficult it is to get these to stay on a westerly course before turning prematurely. This is why there is speculation that the East Coast is more prone than last year, because the mean development and track expectation is more Cape Verdi friendly. And, that is a season that really begins toward the end of this month.

John

Edited by typhoon_tip (Mon Jul 10 2006 11:14 PM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch MikeCAdministrator Mon Jul 10 2006 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Cat 5orBust   Thu Jul 13 2006 09:40 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch cieldumort   Thu Jul 13 2006 09:46 PM
. * * Re: Reminder Storm Cooper   Thu Jul 13 2006 10:34 PM
. * * Re: Reminder Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 14 2006 01:23 AM
. * * Re: Reminder reedzone   Fri Jul 14 2006 01:36 AM
. * * Re: Reminder cieldumort   Fri Jul 14 2006 01:34 AM
. * * Re: Reminder harmlc.ath.cx   Fri Jul 14 2006 06:06 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch typhoon_tip   Thu Jul 13 2006 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch royener   Thu Jul 13 2006 04:47 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Margie   Thu Jul 13 2006 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Lee-Delray   Thu Jul 13 2006 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch reedzone   Thu Jul 13 2006 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch h2ocean   Thu Jul 13 2006 08:06 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch sara33   Thu Jul 13 2006 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch reedzone   Thu Jul 13 2006 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch lawgator   Wed Jul 12 2006 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Firebug814   Wed Jul 12 2006 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch cieldumort   Wed Jul 12 2006 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Cat 5orBust   Wed Jul 12 2006 11:25 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch cieldumort   Wed Jul 12 2006 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch mrsdejesus   Wed Jul 12 2006 05:17 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch sara33   Wed Jul 12 2006 06:33 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch mrsdejesus   Wed Jul 12 2006 07:47 PM
. * * the link HanKFranK   Wed Jul 12 2006 07:56 PM
. * * Hank Frank's Discussion LoisCane   Thu Jul 13 2006 01:23 AM
. * * Re: Hank Frank's Discussion doug   Thu Jul 13 2006 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Hank Frank's Discussion nl   Thu Jul 13 2006 12:12 PM
. * * madden-julian HanKFranK   Thu Jul 13 2006 12:45 PM
. * * Re: madden-julian Genesis   Thu Jul 13 2006 01:08 PM
. * * Whoa!!c whats that next to the Cape Verde Islands?? possible deppression?? reedzone   Thu Jul 13 2006 12:41 PM
. * * Re: Whoa!!c whats that next to the Cape Verde Islands?? possible deppression?? MapMaster   Thu Jul 13 2006 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Whoa!!c whats that next to the Cape Verde Islands?? possible deppression?? reedzone   Thu Jul 13 2006 01:58 PM
. * * Re: the link mrsdejesus   Wed Jul 12 2006 09:03 PM
. * * shear disneyfanfl   Thu Jul 13 2006 12:42 AM
. * * Re: the link Storm Cooper   Wed Jul 12 2006 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch scottsvb   Wed Jul 12 2006 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch cieldumort   Wed Jul 12 2006 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Lee-Delray   Wed Jul 12 2006 12:09 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Lee-Delray   Wed Jul 12 2006 08:20 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Nateball   Wed Jul 12 2006 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Steve H1   Wed Jul 12 2006 09:30 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch andy1tom   Wed Jul 12 2006 01:19 PM
. * * trends, averages, etc HanKFranK   Wed Jul 12 2006 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Tropics Guy   Wed Jul 12 2006 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch ChrisT   Wed Jul 12 2006 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch typhoon_tip   Tue Jul 11 2006 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Cat 5orBust   Tue Jul 11 2006 06:33 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch dem05   Tue Jul 11 2006 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch harmlc.ath.cx   Tue Jul 11 2006 07:27 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch h2ocean   Tue Jul 11 2006 07:45 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch dem05   Tue Jul 11 2006 08:02 PM
. * * Watching danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 11 2006 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Watching Storm Cooper   Tue Jul 11 2006 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Watching dem05   Tue Jul 11 2006 11:03 PM
. * * Re: Watching dem05   Tue Jul 11 2006 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Watching dem05   Tue Jul 11 2006 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Watching Random Chaos   Wed Jul 12 2006 12:28 AM
. * * Re: Watching cieldumort   Wed Jul 12 2006 04:23 AM
. * * Night Watching danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 11 2006 10:53 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Cat 5orBust   Mon Jul 10 2006 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Beaumont, TX   Sun Jul 09 2006 03:15 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 09 2006 03:32 PM
. * * Other Areas danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 09 2006 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Other Areas Storm Cooper   Sun Jul 09 2006 08:04 PM
. * * Re: Other Areas dem05   Sun Jul 09 2006 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Other Areas Storm Cooper   Sun Jul 09 2006 09:17 PM
. * * models LoisCane   Mon Jul 10 2006 01:15 AM
. * * Re: models cieldumort   Mon Jul 10 2006 03:11 AM
. * * Re: models dem05   Mon Jul 10 2006 03:30 AM
. * * Re: models Margie   Mon Jul 10 2006 09:23 AM
. * * Re: models HanKFranK   Mon Jul 10 2006 10:49 AM
. * * Re: models Mike   Mon Jul 10 2006 10:42 AM
. * * Re: models Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Jul 10 2006 11:05 AM
. * * mas HanKFranK   Mon Jul 10 2006 10:54 AM
. * * Re: models Storm Cooper   Mon Jul 10 2006 09:17 AM
. * * Re: models sara33   Mon Jul 10 2006 07:39 PM
. * * Re: models harmlc.ath.cx   Mon Jul 10 2006 08:19 PM
. * * Re: models typhoon_tip   Mon Jul 10 2006 11:12 PM
. * * Re: models Storm Hunter   Mon Jul 10 2006 11:23 PM
. * * Re: models sara33   Mon Jul 10 2006 08:30 PM
. * * Re: models sara33   Mon Jul 10 2006 11:06 PM
. * * Re: models danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 10 2006 11:29 PM
. * * Re: models DaveH   Tue Jul 11 2006 08:01 AM
. * * Re: models Solak   Tue Jul 11 2006 09:57 AM
. * * Re: models Margie   Tue Jul 11 2006 10:38 AM
. * * Re: models amonty   Tue Jul 11 2006 10:49 AM
. * * Re: models Ed in Va   Tue Jul 11 2006 11:02 AM
. * * Re: models Ron Basso   Tue Jul 11 2006 11:25 AM
. * * Re: models Margie   Tue Jul 11 2006 11:38 AM
. * * Re: Off Fl, headed NE MapMaster   Tue Jul 11 2006 11:46 AM
. * * NHC site? madmumbler   Tue Jul 11 2006 02:33 PM
. * * Re: NHC site? HURRICANELONNY   Tue Jul 11 2006 02:58 PM
. * * Re: NHC site? HanKFranK   Tue Jul 11 2006 03:15 PM
. * * Re: NHC site? Storm Hunter   Tue Jul 11 2006 03:09 PM
. * * eastpac is going Margie   Mon Jul 10 2006 11:31 PM
. * * Re: eastpac is going cieldumort   Tue Jul 11 2006 01:04 AM
. * * Re: eastpac is going HanKFranK   Tue Jul 11 2006 02:36 AM
. * * Floaters danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 11 2006 06:48 AM
. * * Re: eastpac is going hurricaneguy   Tue Jul 11 2006 12:04 AM
. * * Re: eastpac is going Margie   Tue Jul 11 2006 12:08 AM
. * * Re: models Margie   Mon Jul 10 2006 08:01 PM
. * * Re: models NewWatcher   Mon Jul 10 2006 07:50 PM
. * * Re: models sara33   Mon Jul 10 2006 08:57 AM
. * * Re: models LoisCane   Mon Jul 10 2006 06:32 AM
. * * Re: Other Areas dem05   Sun Jul 09 2006 11:16 PM
. * * Re: Other Areas hurricaneguy   Sun Jul 09 2006 11:47 PM
. * * Poll LoisCane   Mon Jul 10 2006 01:08 AM
. * * Re: Other Areas stormchazer   Sun Jul 09 2006 09:42 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch dem05   Sun Jul 09 2006 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch typhoon_tip   Sun Jul 09 2006 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Margie   Sun Jul 09 2006 12:18 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Colleen A.   Sun Jul 09 2006 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Margie   Sun Jul 09 2006 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch typhoon_tip   Mon Jul 10 2006 01:08 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch ticka1   Sun Jul 09 2006 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch NewWatcher   Sun Jul 09 2006 01:23 PM
. * * 96L/closer one HanKFranK   Sun Jul 09 2006 01:43 PM
. * * Re: 96L/closer one dem05   Sun Jul 09 2006 03:07 PM
. * * Re: 96L/closer one dem05   Sun Jul 09 2006 02:34 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch stormchaser807   Sun Jul 09 2006 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch dem05   Sun Jul 09 2006 01:56 PM
. * * oh mike thank you LoisCane   Sun Jul 09 2006 09:57 AM
. * * Re: oh mike thank you Colleen A.   Sun Jul 09 2006 10:50 AM
. * * Re: oh mike thank you HCW   Sun Jul 09 2006 11:11 AM

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