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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
madden-julian
      Thu Jul 13 2006 12:45 PM

if you google it some of the links that pop up will have graphics to give you a useful idea. it's hard to conceptualize than a lot of weather phenomena and there is no real way to look AT it, but you can see its effects. mjo is a very large region of enhanced convective activity (with an attendant region of depressed convection) that starts in the indian ocean region and works backwards along the flow in the tropical pacific. where the negative (enhancing) region of the mjo pulse travels, there will be stronger synoptic-scale rising motions and more convection and heat transfer into the upper atmosphere and out of the tropics. this pulse runs around the world in a roughly 40-60 day cycle, and when it passes by the likelihood of hurricane formation is stronger because it causes the environment in the tropics to do things that hurricanes feed off of.
mjo is not always working regularly. its presence and strength is related to other factors in the tropics, like what's going on in the tropical pacific and also perhaps with the action of the monsoon in south asia. 2004 and 2005 didn't really have much mjo activity, but the years prior had plenty. it isn't the most dependable or predictable form of variablity, can be masked by other modes of weather/climate variability, and doesn't even show up sometimes. the noaa climate prediction center has a page with some graphics devoted to mjo. you can look at the time series and get an idea for its complexity and the warbling, amoebic region of enhanced/depressed convection that circles the world and lumps together and apart on its way. if you watch heat energy and moisture streaming out of the tropics on the global sat images associated with the anomaly maps you get the perception that it's milking the tropics of heat and moisture as it goes. sometimes the big shot you see coming out is a tropical cyclone.
'nuff o that. tropics today essentially what we had yesterday. 96L is a swirl with attendant convection, now in the se caribbean, charging west into shear and certain destruction. the feature in the florida straits puffed out overnight (like both it and 96L have done at times), then flashes back to life. there's a surface trough, with more surface turning on the axis to the north off west florida but more convection at the southern end near the keys. probably more low-mid vorticity to the south as well. it has a high aloft... a good strong convective flash could potentially get the churning and pressure falls started that could push something out of this, but there still isn't a whole lot going on.
pretty strong wave coming off africa. not sure if the globals are seeing things down there so well. ssts still kinda marginal and dry environment, but it'll face a little less shear than the one before it.
HF 1645z13july

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch MikeCAdministrator Thu Jul 13 2006 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Cat 5orBust   Thu Jul 13 2006 09:40 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch cieldumort   Thu Jul 13 2006 09:46 PM
. * * Re: Reminder Storm Cooper   Thu Jul 13 2006 10:34 PM
. * * Re: Reminder Storm Hunter   Fri Jul 14 2006 01:23 AM
. * * Re: Reminder reedzone   Fri Jul 14 2006 01:36 AM
. * * Re: Reminder cieldumort   Fri Jul 14 2006 01:34 AM
. * * Re: Reminder harmlc.ath.cx   Fri Jul 14 2006 06:06 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch typhoon_tip   Thu Jul 13 2006 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch royener   Thu Jul 13 2006 04:47 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Margie   Thu Jul 13 2006 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Lee-Delray   Thu Jul 13 2006 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch reedzone   Thu Jul 13 2006 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch h2ocean   Thu Jul 13 2006 08:06 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch sara33   Thu Jul 13 2006 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch reedzone   Thu Jul 13 2006 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch lawgator   Wed Jul 12 2006 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Firebug814   Wed Jul 12 2006 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch cieldumort   Wed Jul 12 2006 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Cat 5orBust   Wed Jul 12 2006 11:25 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch cieldumort   Wed Jul 12 2006 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch mrsdejesus   Wed Jul 12 2006 05:17 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch sara33   Wed Jul 12 2006 06:33 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch mrsdejesus   Wed Jul 12 2006 07:47 PM
. * * the link HanKFranK   Wed Jul 12 2006 07:56 PM
. * * Hank Frank's Discussion LoisCane   Thu Jul 13 2006 01:23 AM
. * * Re: Hank Frank's Discussion doug   Thu Jul 13 2006 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Hank Frank's Discussion nl   Thu Jul 13 2006 12:12 PM
. * * madden-julian HanKFranK   Thu Jul 13 2006 12:45 PM
. * * Re: madden-julian Genesis   Thu Jul 13 2006 01:08 PM
. * * Whoa!!c whats that next to the Cape Verde Islands?? possible deppression?? reedzone   Thu Jul 13 2006 12:41 PM
. * * Re: Whoa!!c whats that next to the Cape Verde Islands?? possible deppression?? MapMaster   Thu Jul 13 2006 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Whoa!!c whats that next to the Cape Verde Islands?? possible deppression?? reedzone   Thu Jul 13 2006 01:58 PM
. * * Re: the link mrsdejesus   Wed Jul 12 2006 09:03 PM
. * * shear disneyfanfl   Thu Jul 13 2006 12:42 AM
. * * Re: the link Storm Cooper   Wed Jul 12 2006 09:22 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch scottsvb   Wed Jul 12 2006 11:37 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch cieldumort   Wed Jul 12 2006 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Lee-Delray   Wed Jul 12 2006 12:09 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Lee-Delray   Wed Jul 12 2006 08:20 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Nateball   Wed Jul 12 2006 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Steve H1   Wed Jul 12 2006 09:30 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch andy1tom   Wed Jul 12 2006 01:19 PM
. * * trends, averages, etc HanKFranK   Wed Jul 12 2006 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Tropics Guy   Wed Jul 12 2006 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch ChrisT   Wed Jul 12 2006 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch typhoon_tip   Tue Jul 11 2006 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Cat 5orBust   Tue Jul 11 2006 06:33 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch dem05   Tue Jul 11 2006 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch harmlc.ath.cx   Tue Jul 11 2006 07:27 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch h2ocean   Tue Jul 11 2006 07:45 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch dem05   Tue Jul 11 2006 08:02 PM
. * * Watching danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 11 2006 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Watching Storm Cooper   Tue Jul 11 2006 10:00 PM
. * * Re: Watching dem05   Tue Jul 11 2006 11:03 PM
. * * Re: Watching dem05   Tue Jul 11 2006 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Watching dem05   Tue Jul 11 2006 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Watching Random Chaos   Wed Jul 12 2006 12:28 AM
. * * Re: Watching cieldumort   Wed Jul 12 2006 04:23 AM
. * * Night Watching danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 11 2006 10:53 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Cat 5orBust   Mon Jul 10 2006 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Beaumont, TX   Sun Jul 09 2006 03:15 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 09 2006 03:32 PM
. * * Other Areas danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 09 2006 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Other Areas Storm Cooper   Sun Jul 09 2006 08:04 PM
. * * Re: Other Areas dem05   Sun Jul 09 2006 09:03 PM
. * * Re: Other Areas Storm Cooper   Sun Jul 09 2006 09:17 PM
. * * models LoisCane   Mon Jul 10 2006 01:15 AM
. * * Re: models cieldumort   Mon Jul 10 2006 03:11 AM
. * * Re: models dem05   Mon Jul 10 2006 03:30 AM
. * * Re: models Margie   Mon Jul 10 2006 09:23 AM
. * * Re: models HanKFranK   Mon Jul 10 2006 10:49 AM
. * * Re: models Mike   Mon Jul 10 2006 10:42 AM
. * * Re: models Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Jul 10 2006 11:05 AM
. * * mas HanKFranK   Mon Jul 10 2006 10:54 AM
. * * Re: models Storm Cooper   Mon Jul 10 2006 09:17 AM
. * * Re: models sara33   Mon Jul 10 2006 07:39 PM
. * * Re: models harmlc.ath.cx   Mon Jul 10 2006 08:19 PM
. * * Re: models typhoon_tip   Mon Jul 10 2006 11:12 PM
. * * Re: models Storm Hunter   Mon Jul 10 2006 11:23 PM
. * * Re: models sara33   Mon Jul 10 2006 08:30 PM
. * * Re: models sara33   Mon Jul 10 2006 11:06 PM
. * * Re: models danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 10 2006 11:29 PM
. * * Re: models DaveH   Tue Jul 11 2006 08:01 AM
. * * Re: models Solak   Tue Jul 11 2006 09:57 AM
. * * Re: models Margie   Tue Jul 11 2006 10:38 AM
. * * Re: models amonty   Tue Jul 11 2006 10:49 AM
. * * Re: models Ed in Va   Tue Jul 11 2006 11:02 AM
. * * Re: models Ron Basso   Tue Jul 11 2006 11:25 AM
. * * Re: models Margie   Tue Jul 11 2006 11:38 AM
. * * Re: Off Fl, headed NE MapMaster   Tue Jul 11 2006 11:46 AM
. * * NHC site? madmumbler   Tue Jul 11 2006 02:33 PM
. * * Re: NHC site? HURRICANELONNY   Tue Jul 11 2006 02:58 PM
. * * Re: NHC site? HanKFranK   Tue Jul 11 2006 03:15 PM
. * * Re: NHC site? Storm Hunter   Tue Jul 11 2006 03:09 PM
. * * eastpac is going Margie   Mon Jul 10 2006 11:31 PM
. * * Re: eastpac is going cieldumort   Tue Jul 11 2006 01:04 AM
. * * Re: eastpac is going HanKFranK   Tue Jul 11 2006 02:36 AM
. * * Floaters danielwAdministrator   Tue Jul 11 2006 06:48 AM
. * * Re: eastpac is going hurricaneguy   Tue Jul 11 2006 12:04 AM
. * * Re: eastpac is going Margie   Tue Jul 11 2006 12:08 AM
. * * Re: models Margie   Mon Jul 10 2006 08:01 PM
. * * Re: models NewWatcher   Mon Jul 10 2006 07:50 PM
. * * Re: models sara33   Mon Jul 10 2006 08:57 AM
. * * Re: models LoisCane   Mon Jul 10 2006 06:32 AM
. * * Re: Other Areas dem05   Sun Jul 09 2006 11:16 PM
. * * Re: Other Areas hurricaneguy   Sun Jul 09 2006 11:47 PM
. * * Poll LoisCane   Mon Jul 10 2006 01:08 AM
. * * Re: Other Areas stormchazer   Sun Jul 09 2006 09:42 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch dem05   Sun Jul 09 2006 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch typhoon_tip   Sun Jul 09 2006 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Margie   Sun Jul 09 2006 12:18 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch Colleen A.   Sun Jul 09 2006 10:40 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Margie   Sun Jul 09 2006 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch typhoon_tip   Mon Jul 10 2006 01:08 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch ticka1   Sun Jul 09 2006 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch NewWatcher   Sun Jul 09 2006 01:23 PM
. * * 96L/closer one HanKFranK   Sun Jul 09 2006 01:43 PM
. * * Re: 96L/closer one dem05   Sun Jul 09 2006 03:07 PM
. * * Re: 96L/closer one dem05   Sun Jul 09 2006 02:34 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch stormchaser807   Sun Jul 09 2006 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Week 2 July, Slightly More to Watch dem05   Sun Jul 09 2006 01:56 PM
. * * oh mike thank you LoisCane   Sun Jul 09 2006 09:57 AM
. * * Re: oh mike thank you Colleen A.   Sun Jul 09 2006 10:50 AM
. * * Re: oh mike thank you HCW   Sun Jul 09 2006 11:11 AM

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