Central Florida Hurricane Center 2012

6:45 AM Update:

Chris has formed from Tropical Depression 3, and the forecast was adjusted up, but currently keeps it at a Tropical Storm for the length. This is due to uncertainty in the future path, ie some shear, or land interaction would keep it low, and poor earlier model initialization.

Most models don't show strengthening at all, this is due to a pair of Upper level low pressure areas ahead of the system, which generally would cause a great deal of shear and keep the storm in check or weaken (or even dissapate it). It would have to thread the needle to not be affected by the shearing of the two lows.

So most likely it will remain a Tropical Storm or even get weaker because of shear. But there is an off chance it could become stronger so it remains something to watch..

Tropical Storm Warnings are up for many of the Eastern Caribbean islands, such as Antigue, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius. And tropical storm watches are up for all of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

More to come as it is available. Bottom line, Watch this system.

Original Update:
At the next advisory time period, the wave that was crossing the Atlantic east of the Caribbean islands will likely be known as Tropical Depression 3. It is forecast to remain a depression througout the forecast period due to shear and dry air.

Folks along the Leeward Caribbean islands. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico will want to watch it, and for us, we'll have to keep an eye on it for a while until we know exactly where it goes, but we will have plenty of time to watch that.

As for the other wave near the Bahamas, Strong stationary upper level low northeast of the central Bahamas near 25N 72W will mean an unfavorable environment for any tropical development in the Bahamas and off the coast of the southeast U.S.

The new depression, nearing the Caribbean islands, has growing convection and banding features. This wave has survived quite well in its journey across the Atlantic and has overcome Saharan dust, shear, and a considerable amount of dry air in its path. The system will probably take a more westerly motion into the northeast Caribbean Sea rather than a path north of the Islands.

In general, however, August: Conditions are still less than ideal, but some factors are slowly changing. The dust in the east Atlantic has subsided considerably in the last 10 days. The sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, especially the east Atlantic, are slowly rising - but still way below last August. It will be interesting to see if Dr Gray changes his numbers at all on Thursday.

In the past 100 years, 73 seasons have had at least 7 storms. In those 73 seasons, the average date for the third named storm is August 11th. It is likely we will beat that this year by a week or so.

Event Related Links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations

Radar Imagery
San Juan, PR
Martinique Radar

Chris:

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot of Chris
Google Map Plot of Chris
SFWMD Model Plot
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system

Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 01 2006 10:01 PM)

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