Central Florida Hurricane Center 2012

sure was a generous advisory, keeping chris a tropical storm. after the nhc not wanting to classify the system initially they're being very careful not to unclassify it. the uncertainties around the storm have kept their intensity forecasts along obviously impossible lines (i.e., it's going to move straight wnw five days as a depression or storm with no intensity chg... or yesterday's category 1 hurricane that didn't strengthen).
chris is tangling with upper lows that are pivoting around other upper features... the one that beat it down yesterday and dragged that northwesterly jet across it and all the mid-level dry air in is flattening out and tailing back east, around the one to the northeast all along that was supposed to tail it. at the same time, overnight north of these another upper vortex has been diving sw and is now probably the one that will tail around the upper ridge as shown by models for recent days. that's going to modify the flow around chris some... and probably will ultimately remove or reduce the unfavorable shear pattern (after it maybe thumps the area as it jets by).
in the meanwhile, chris should be dragging slowly wnw along in the low level flow, puffing convection (and maybe bursting if a swath of upper diffluence passes over the circulation), and trying to survive while all this complex upper air evolution takes place. chris missed the gap created in the TUTT that could have made it into a very dangerous storm.. and is now working its way through a rebuilding TUTT under a big blocky ridge to the north.
there are really two things that can happen here. last night i outlined a few, thinking the mlc was vigorous enough to spawn another surface center... should have leaned on the original center.
chris can plod westward, slowly spin down, and have the shear pattern continue to keep the storm disorganized... until it loses its surface center, opens into a trough, and dies.
the other outcome is that the vigorous surface center holds its course until the shear pattern and dry air intrusion slackens.. and redevelops convection. that would likely make chris's recent antics into an excursion, while in the long term a threat remains to land areas further west.
i'm gonna sit this one on the fence until the u/a evolution becomes more clear. it's going to take a continuous pounding for a couple more days to kill it completely... which is possible, but maybe not what we're ultimately going to get.
HF 1521z03august

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Aug 03 2006 11:22 AM)

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