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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

Clark
Meteorologist

Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes

Re:
Thu Aug 03 2006 02:15 PM

Yeah, I tend to think it's pretty iffy. That cut-off ULL developing as a result of trough fracture to the NE of Chris is continuing to dig to the southwest and should continue to impinge upon Chris for the foreseeable future. In fact, if this developing ULL slides far enough SW, it could get caught in the flow around the ridge off of the mid-Atlantic states and shadow Chris the entire way, leading to no regenration.

Even if it doesn't, I think Chris has a fair amount of time before it's going to substantially have a shot at redevelopment. Further, all of that dry air in the environment has now been able to enter into the storm's circulation thanks to the strong shear and the decoupling of the system from the surface to aloft, leading to a very stable mid-level environment. Something needs to happen to moisten that up, whether by advection from outside the environment or by repeated small convective bursts associated with Chris itself, to see further development. I don't think either is a given right now.

It's rare to have such a complete change of heart...but that's just the way the weather is playing out. I expect declassification later today from Chris and for the LLC to persist for another 2-3 days as a relatively convective-free system. After that, as it nears Florida and the Gulf, it might have a shot at some redevelopment if the ULL does not shadow the system and the environment is favorable. It lost its train by moving too slowly while northeast of Puerto Rico and the upper environment quickly became much more hostile than anticipated. Sometimes, those are the breaks.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	MikeC	Thu Aug 03 2006 02:15 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	StuckInNO	Fri Aug 04 2006 04:19 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	FreeportGary	Fri Aug 04 2006 04:53 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	cieldumort	Fri Aug 04 2006 05:35 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Beaumont, TX	Fri Aug 04 2006 12:09 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Shawn M	Fri Aug 04 2006 01:03 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	HurryCaneForm	Fri Aug 04 2006 01:14 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	FreeportGary	Fri Aug 04 2006 01:44 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	FreeportGary	Fri Aug 04 2006 04:32 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	HurryCaneForm	Fri Aug 04 2006 02:08 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Shawn M	Fri Aug 04 2006 03:31 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	nc_tropical_wx79	Fri Aug 04 2006 03:43 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Psyber	Fri Aug 04 2006 04:28 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Tropics Guy	Fri Aug 04 2006 04:34 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Texas Cane Tracker	Fri Aug 04 2006 04:50 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	cieldumort	Fri Aug 04 2006 05:33 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	HurryCaneForm	Fri Aug 04 2006 04:05 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Cash	Fri Aug 04 2006 04:55 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	cieldumort	Fri Aug 04 2006 05:39 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	allan	Fri Aug 04 2006 03:49 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	doug	Fri Aug 04 2006 01:36 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Cat 5orBust	Thu Aug 03 2006 07:34 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Steve H1	Thu Aug 03 2006 07:40 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	nl	Thu Aug 03 2006 07:47 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	HurryCaneForm	Thu Aug 03 2006 04:14 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	weather_wise911	Thu Aug 03 2006 04:26 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Texas Cane Tracker	Thu Aug 03 2006 05:37 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	HanKFranK	Thu Aug 03 2006 06:20 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Hugh	Thu Aug 03 2006 06:41 PM
Chris	danielw	Thu Aug 03 2006 07:18 PM
Re: Chris	Hugh	Thu Aug 03 2006 07:31 PM
Re: Chris	ltpat228	Thu Aug 03 2006 07:53 PM
Re: Chris	allan	Thu Aug 03 2006 08:10 PM
Re: Chris	Hugh	Thu Aug 03 2006 08:00 PM
Re: Chris	nc_tropical_wx79	Thu Aug 03 2006 08:11 PM
Re: Chris	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Thu Aug 03 2006 08:33 PM
Re: Chris	HurryCaneForm	Thu Aug 03 2006 08:22 PM
Re: Chris	Hugh	Thu Aug 03 2006 08:39 PM
Re: Chris	ltpat228	Thu Aug 03 2006 08:53 PM
Re: Chris	Hugh	Thu Aug 03 2006 08:59 PM
Re: Chris	HurryCaneForm	Thu Aug 03 2006 09:08 PM
Comeback?	wxman007	Thu Aug 03 2006 09:18 PM
Re: Comeback?	Margie	Thu Aug 03 2006 10:25 PM
Re: Comeback?	FreeportGary	Thu Aug 03 2006 09:34 PM
Re: Comeback?	wxman007	Thu Aug 03 2006 09:40 PM
Re: Comeback?	Beaumont, TX	Thu Aug 03 2006 09:48 PM
Re: Comeback?	Thunderbird12	Thu Aug 03 2006 09:59 PM
Re: Comeback?	Colleen A.	Thu Aug 03 2006 10:20 PM
Re: Comeback?	allan	Thu Aug 03 2006 10:26 PM
Re: Comeback?	danielw	Thu Aug 03 2006 10:25 PM
Re: Comeback?	cieldumort	Thu Aug 03 2006 11:09 PM
Re: Comeback?	allan	Thu Aug 03 2006 11:16 PM
Re: Comeback?	dem05	Thu Aug 03 2006 11:24 PM
Re: Comeback?	allan	Thu Aug 03 2006 11:33 PM
Re: Comeback?	HanKFranK	Fri Aug 04 2006 12:14 AM
Re: Comeback?	Shawn M	Fri Aug 04 2006 09:14 AM
Re: Comeback?	Lee-Delray	Fri Aug 04 2006 09:58 AM
Re: Comeback?	HanKFranK	Fri Aug 04 2006 10:17 AM
Re: Comeback?	bhnole	Fri Aug 04 2006 03:49 PM
Re: Comeback?	madmumbler	Fri Aug 04 2006 06:36 PM
Re: Comeback?	jlauderdal	Fri Aug 04 2006 08:47 PM
Re: Comeback?	Hugh	Fri Aug 04 2006 07:26 PM
Re: Comeback?	cieldumort	Fri Aug 04 2006 08:27 PM
Re: Comeback?	Hugh	Fri Aug 04 2006 09:00 PM
Re: Comeback?	Storm Cooper	Fri Aug 04 2006 07:48 PM
Re: Comeback?	Clark	Fri Aug 04 2006 09:02 PM
Re: Comeback?	Hugh	Fri Aug 04 2006 10:22 PM
Re: Comeback?	Clark	Fri Aug 04 2006 10:24 PM
Re: Comeback?	Hugh	Fri Aug 04 2006 10:36 PM
Re: Comeback?	cieldumort	Fri Aug 04 2006 10:30 PM
Re: Comeback?	LaVidaCyclone	Fri Aug 04 2006 11:38 PM
Re: Comeback?	HurryCaneForm	Sat Aug 05 2006 12:36 AM
Re: Comeback?	HurryCaneForm	Sat Aug 05 2006 12:41 AM
Re: Comeback?	allan	Fri Aug 04 2006 10:02 PM
Re: Comeback?	SebastianLou	Fri Aug 04 2006 10:29 PM
Re: Comeback?	wow	Fri Aug 04 2006 10:20 PM
Re: Comeback?	Hugh	Fri Aug 04 2006 07:59 PM
Re: Comeback?	Manny	Fri Aug 04 2006 04:06 PM
Re: Several days ago	anon	Fri Aug 04 2006 10:36 AM
interesting...	HanKFranK	Fri Aug 04 2006 10:57 AM
Re: interesting...	Genesis	Fri Aug 04 2006 11:45 AM
Re: interesting...	Shawn M	Fri Aug 04 2006 11:48 AM
Re: interesting...	doug	Fri Aug 04 2006 11:53 AM
Re: interesting...	Ed in Va	Fri Aug 04 2006 11:14 AM
Re: interesting...	scottsvb	Fri Aug 04 2006 11:48 AM
Re: Comeback?	zacros	Fri Aug 04 2006 10:10 AM
Re: Comeback?	dem05	Fri Aug 04 2006 12:24 AM
Re: Comeback?	dolfinatic	Fri Aug 04 2006 12:36 AM
Re: Comeback?	Texas Cane Tracker	Fri Aug 04 2006 12:43 AM
Re: Comeback?	allan	Fri Aug 04 2006 12:53 AM
CLP5	danielw	Fri Aug 04 2006 12:46 AM
Re: Comeback?	danielw	Fri Aug 04 2006 12:32 AM
Re: Comeback?	dem05	Fri Aug 04 2006 12:40 AM
Re: Comeback?	cieldumort	Fri Aug 04 2006 12:23 AM
Re: Comeback?	Colleen A.	Thu Aug 03 2006 10:33 PM
Re: Comeback?	Psyber	Thu Aug 03 2006 10:46 PM
11	Brett	Thu Aug 03 2006 10:53 PM
Re: 11	cieldumort	Thu Aug 03 2006 11:05 PM
Re: 11	Colleen A.	Thu Aug 03 2006 11:45 PM
Re: 11	dem05	Fri Aug 04 2006 12:01 AM
Re: 11	Colleen A.	Fri Aug 04 2006 12:50 AM
Re: 11	dem05	Fri Aug 04 2006 01:14 AM
Re: 11	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Fri Aug 04 2006 01:01 AM
Re: 11	scottsvb	Fri Aug 04 2006 01:17 AM
Re: 11	dem05	Fri Aug 04 2006 01:54 AM
Re: 11	allan	Fri Aug 04 2006 01:57 AM
Re: 11	dem05	Fri Aug 04 2006 02:29 AM
RECON	danielw	Fri Aug 04 2006 02:33 AM
Re: RECON	cieldumort	Fri Aug 04 2006 02:46 AM
Re: RECON	dem05	Fri Aug 04 2006 03:02 AM
Re: RECON	cieldumort	Fri Aug 04 2006 03:44 AM
Re: RECON	zacros	Fri Aug 04 2006 06:23 AM
Re: RECON	Hugh	Fri Aug 04 2006 06:59 AM
Re: RECON	GuppieGrouper	Fri Aug 04 2006 07:32 AM
Chris' demise on the horizon	Hugh	Fri Aug 04 2006 08:05 AM
Re: Chris' demise on the horizon	javlin	Fri Aug 04 2006 08:15 AM
Re: Chris' demise on the horizon	Colleen A.	Fri Aug 04 2006 10:11 AM
Re: RECON	Psyber	Fri Aug 04 2006 08:05 AM
Re: RECON	Manny	Fri Aug 04 2006 02:39 AM
Re: RECON	cieldumort	Fri Aug 04 2006 02:50 AM
Re: RECON	Manny	Fri Aug 04 2006 02:56 AM
Re: 11	WeatherNLU	Fri Aug 04 2006 02:19 AM
Re: 11	hurricaneguy	Fri Aug 04 2006 01:15 AM
Re: 11	cieldumort	Fri Aug 04 2006 12:07 AM
WV Imagery	Colleen A.	Thu Aug 03 2006 11:58 PM
Re: 11	javlin	Thu Aug 03 2006 11:32 PM
Re: 11	HurryCaneForm	Thu Aug 03 2006 10:56 PM
Re: Comeback?	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Thu Aug 03 2006 10:35 PM
Re: Comeback?	Hugh	Thu Aug 03 2006 10:44 PM
Re: Comeback?	WeatherNLU	Thu Aug 03 2006 10:31 PM
Re: Comeback?	Beaumont, TX	Thu Aug 03 2006 10:04 PM
Re: Comeback?	HurryCaneForm	Thu Aug 03 2006 10:13 PM
Re: Comeback?	madmumbler	Thu Aug 03 2006 09:44 PM
Re: Comeback?	HurryCaneForm	Thu Aug 03 2006 09:54 PM
Re: Comeback?	madmumbler	Thu Aug 03 2006 09:56 PM
Re: Comeback?	jessiej	Thu Aug 03 2006 09:52 PM
Re: Comeback?	HurryCaneForm	Thu Aug 03 2006 09:37 PM
Re: Comeback?	Hugh	Thu Aug 03 2006 09:27 PM
Re: Comeback?	Beaumont, TX	Thu Aug 03 2006 09:38 PM
Re: Comeback?	wxman007	Thu Aug 03 2006 09:35 PM
Re: Chris	allan	Thu Aug 03 2006 08:49 PM
Re: Chris	Manny	Thu Aug 03 2006 08:54 PM
Re: Chris	zacros	Thu Aug 03 2006 07:27 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	weather_wise911	Thu Aug 03 2006 04:30 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Storm Hunter	Thu Aug 03 2006 04:44 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	HurryCaneForm	Thu Aug 03 2006 04:50 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	HanKFranK	Thu Aug 03 2006 05:15 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	DrChrisHE	Thu Aug 03 2006 03:21 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	dolfinatic	Thu Aug 03 2006 03:56 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Storm Hunter	Thu Aug 03 2006 04:01 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Clark	Thu Aug 03 2006 09:33 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	doug	Thu Aug 03 2006 10:21 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Shawn M	Thu Aug 03 2006 10:27 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	FreeportGary	Thu Aug 03 2006 10:53 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	doug	Thu Aug 03 2006 11:03 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Camille2Katrina	Thu Aug 03 2006 09:43 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	tpratch	Thu Aug 03 2006 09:54 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Clark	Thu Aug 03 2006 09:50 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Storm Hunter	Thu Aug 03 2006 09:55 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Shawn M	Thu Aug 03 2006 10:16 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Genesis	Thu Aug 03 2006 10:14 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Storm Hunter	Thu Aug 03 2006 10:20 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Psyber	Thu Aug 03 2006 10:32 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	SirCane	Thu Aug 03 2006 10:13 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Camille2Katrina	Thu Aug 03 2006 09:51 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Clark	Thu Aug 03 2006 10:55 AM
the new, improved chris	HanKFranK	Thu Aug 03 2006 11:21 AM
Re: the new, improved chris	LoisCane	Thu Aug 03 2006 11:49 AM
GRAY UPDATE	Steve H1	Thu Aug 03 2006 11:57 AM
Re: GRAY UPDATE	SirCane	Thu Aug 03 2006 12:01 PM
Re: GRAY UPDATE	madmumbler	Thu Aug 03 2006 09:36 PM
Re:	scottsvb	Thu Aug 03 2006 12:29 PM
Re:	javlin	Thu Aug 03 2006 01:52 PM
Re:	FloydRTurbo	Thu Aug 03 2006 02:17 PM
Re:	scottsvb	Thu Aug 03 2006 02:03 PM
Re:	javlin	Thu Aug 03 2006 02:18 PM
Re:	scottsvb	Thu Aug 03 2006 02:07 PM
Re:	Clark	Thu Aug 03 2006 02:15 PM
Re:	doug	Thu Aug 03 2006 02:28 PM
Re:	Storm Hunter	Thu Aug 03 2006 02:30 PM
Re:	Ed in Va	Thu Aug 03 2006 02:54 PM
Re:	HanKFranK	Thu Aug 03 2006 12:52 PM
Re: Dry air choking Chris	anon	Thu Aug 03 2006 01:16 PM
Re: Dry air choking Chris	doug	Thu Aug 03 2006 01:28 PM
Re: Dry air choking Chris	FloydRTurbo	Thu Aug 03 2006 01:40 PM
Re: Dry air choking Chris	weather_wise911	Thu Aug 03 2006 02:14 PM
Re: Dry air choking Chris	javlin	Thu Aug 03 2006 01:55 PM
Re: Dry air choking Chris	ElizabethH	Thu Aug 03 2006 02:00 PM
Re:	scottsvb	Thu Aug 03 2006 12:55 PM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Beaumont, TX	Thu Aug 03 2006 09:27 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	madmumbler	Thu Aug 03 2006 07:58 AM
re: 8am update	madmumbler	Thu Aug 03 2006 07:47 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Randrew	Thu Aug 03 2006 06:15 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	danielw	Thu Aug 03 2006 06:19 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Randrew	Thu Aug 03 2006 06:29 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	madmumbler	Thu Aug 03 2006 07:42 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Hugh	Thu Aug 03 2006 08:01 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Thunderbird12	Thu Aug 03 2006 09:01 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	doug	Thu Aug 03 2006 09:15 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Storm Hunter	Thu Aug 03 2006 09:30 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Rasvar	Thu Aug 03 2006 09:06 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	wereallgonnadie	Thu Aug 03 2006 08:10 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	JOC	Thu Aug 03 2006 08:45 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Steve H1	Thu Aug 03 2006 09:01 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	anon	Thu Aug 03 2006 08:59 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Hugh	Thu Aug 03 2006 06:34 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	GuppieGrouper	Thu Aug 03 2006 06:53 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Hugh	Thu Aug 03 2006 07:04 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	doug	Thu Aug 03 2006 07:30 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	lawgator	Thu Aug 03 2006 07:41 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	Steve H1	Thu Aug 03 2006 07:28 AM
Re: Chris "Splits" Overnight Dramatically Weakens	HURRICANELONNY	Thu Aug 03 2006 07:40 AM

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