convection is going again on the SE side. i'm a little perplexed by some of the model feedback. some globals are showing the u/a low to the east of chris not moving much while the surface system moves forward, and into the 200mb col region. funny thing is, the col region and chris are still shown moving w/wnw in tandem to the gulf. the future of chris comes down to whether it can get ahead of the upper low trailing it and into the col and re-establish an anticyclone aloft. if it doesn't the system will remain sheared and weak, or just waste away. if it does, chris remains a threat. HF 2220z03august
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