There is no way Chris can survive in this scenario. With the separation of the circulation, the entire makeup of the storm is disrupted. The official forecast from NHC in their 5am AST advisory maintains Chris as a 35kt cyclone as it moves north of Hispanola and over northern Cuba towawrd the southern Gulf of Mexico. I think that this forecast is maintained out of the fact that they want to get the latest model runs in from the overnight hours before they forecast dissipation, even though they do bring up the possibility in the official discussion.
My two cents...Chris will not survive the next 24 hours. With no upper level structure, the low level center will eventually fill in and collapse into an open trough. We will continue to monitor whats left of Chris as it moves west, but with upper level winds foreacst to be margianl for developemnt and the mid-tropospheric ridge to the north forecast to build westward, I don't give it much of a chance to do anything.
NOW CAN SOMEONE TELL ME because half are saying on sat & radar right now he's coming back while others are saying what is quoted above. SAo from what any of you know and looking at sat & radar what is Chris doing right now? Dying or making a come back?
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