The clipper has cosistently tried and failed to turn this one out like a fish...Not a very good model on this one, but I think confidence is generally running lower than expected for all of them. There hasn't been one singlemodel that has been head on with thisthe whole time, consistent...maybe so, but on target...no. http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/%7Evigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
Also, while you are throwing the wild cards out...There will be a break in the ridge. The key question is this, is it gonna be a gap, or will one ridge be south of the other with an impassible break in between. If there is a true gap between the two, Texas will be out of the picture, more of an east or central gulf issue. Exerpt from the Disco at 11PM:
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10... A TOUCH FASTER THAN BEFORE. A LOW TO MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...KEEPING THE MOTION GENERALLY A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST. SOME ACCELERATION IS ALSO FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE PASSES DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE CORE OF RIDGE AXIS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH TONIGHT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS DISPLACED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD AS WELL. THIS NEW TRACK IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT MAINTAIN THE CIRCULATION OF CHRIS.
AFTER THE STORM ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS HIGH COULD INDUCE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IN THE LONG-TERM AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
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