I would like very much like to see Mr. Cantore's scenario play out. However, it's not like he is pulling it out of thin air ... it's there and you can see it. Whether or not it stays there is the big question.
I remember in 2004 that two storms (Frances and Jeanne) were forecasted to just "skirt" the EC of Florida...but Mother Nature slammed the door shut right near northern Florida and they both took a turn that nobody actually predicted. Charlie did the same thing at the last minute. You are correct when you say we should not let our guard down until Chris dies. However, Jim Cantore has been doing this for a very long time and he is very good at what he does. He may go out on a limb now and then, but he's right 99.5% of the time.
-------------------- You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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