dang... lot of stuff going on. three areas of interest are showing on u.s. radar right now. chris's remnant low had an impressive burst of convection on it this evening, but it has since died. the low is apparent on the north coast of cuba, about 150-200 miles southeast of the keys. it should be clear of cuba later tomorrow and over the gulf... the system has already cleared the shear from the upper low backing to its east (it stopped hounding former chris finally)... it has a shot at redevelopment. just off the houma, la area is another weak low from the mesoscale system that moved off friday night. the low persists and is over very warm water.. and has some upper support. convection isn't really concentrated near the low, and the circulation is sort of broad. it has a long way to go. off the carolina coastline is a weakening front with a convective flare. there isn't a real low pressure area here, but anticyclonic flow aloft may aid the continued convection and work pressures down. like the previous two, surface pressures are fairly high and it isn't much of a development threat at the moment. out in the atlantic... three more areas. cut off low with surface reflection ~500 miles southwest of the azores.. over marginal waters, decent convection. globals indicate that this low will work to the surface... but don't show a robust tropical development. given time this may hybridize, or it might just remain an upper low. should meander for the next few days. two waves east of the islands.. one near 50w with a mediocre signature and little convection... losing its identity to a wind surge possibly tomorrow. further east is a developing tropical cyclone. there is a convective region with the strongest turning, just separate from the itcz... nhc calls it a 1010mb low. this will likely slowly develop into a tropical cyclone by monday and begin moving wnw. u/a pattern should support further development. not much of an idea on the long term motion.. waiting for more models to recognize it (and for other features to evolve, i.e. the u/a low near the azores) to decide what its chances of making it into the western atlantic are. climatologically speaking it's developing far to the east, and its chances of making it across are by default reduced. there's too much going on to not expect a storm or two over the next few days. HF 0602z06august
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