Central Florida Hurricane Center 2012

I really don't like that Canadian Clipper..... and the bad news is that its been reasonably right often enough to bother me.

The "easy" models are usually untrustworthy, and its interesting that none of the other globals are finding any staying power on this thing.

If you look at the WV loop at http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html there's an obvious ULL in the gulf roughly south of the AL/MS line by a couple hundred miles, moving to the NNW and losing some of its definition. If that thing was to drill down it could be trouble - what's keeping it from doing so is the STRONG high to the north of it. The convergence is what kicked off the severe storms near us today, and might tomorrow - but then its outta here it appears..... That suits me just fine, as I don't think anyone down here wants to see anything get organized south of NO!

There's a slug of dry air over Hispanola right now, but that appears to be moving off to the west and looks to be far enough in front of our wave that its not going to "prong" it like happened to Chris. Interestingly enough it looks like the wave has been impacted by this however, in that the last few frames of the IR loop seem to show a flattening (more westward) movement - althought that may be illusory and just where the convection is heaviest.

This thing is really CRANKING along. It has to slow down some if its going to have time to get more vertically organized, but by being relatively shallow it also misses the ULL's "spike" effect - so its a mixed bag. I also don't see much rotation - that's a good thing for the time being....

Tomorrow should tell the tale. If its going to get TUTTed, that should be when it happens. I'd put the odds at 50/50 on it being able to stay far enough east of the influence, and for the inhibiting factors to clear west of it - which would allow it to deepen and develop rotation. Its over warm water now and absent active disruption we'd have a good storm going already.

The high that is over the TN/AL/GA border area looks to be moving slowly ESE, and this is not good news. If that comes off the coast and allows what could be "D" to ride up to its west, things could get quite interesting....... this looks to be what the clipper is seeing..... right now the pattern in front of this thing is quite complex, but that looks to be clearing off to a large degree over the next couple of days......

Will be watching it tomorrow... and hoping its a bust, as the last thing I want is this thing getting into the gulf with all the current inhibitors off the playing field in front of it and 85F+ water underneath it!

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