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#TD2 Now Entering SW Bay of Campeche. Tropical Storm Watch Has Been Issued.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 232 (Sandy), in Florida: 2794 (Wilma)
Td#2
ADV#7 11:00 pm EDT
18.9N 92.7W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Wnw at 12 mph
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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1047
Loc: Texas
Re: 91L
      Thu Aug 10 2006 01:10 AM

At this hour nearly all of the deep convection has raced along far ahead of whatever is left of a mlc - best I can tell, 91L is now a nice Inverted V easterly wave - with a lot of forward momentum - I see close to zero chance for development over the next 12 hours if this trend continues. It looks like an arrow shooting across the Caribbean tonight, leaving mere feathers of "convection" in it's wake.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html


At any rate, whatever is left of it might have a deeper fetch of tropical moisture to draw from, as well as even warmer SSTs, once whatever is left gets in to the central and western Carib.


I'll amend that observation to say that the MLC is actually still visible near St. Lucia - and is still attempting to re-fire convection tonight ... so, that is where I would consider 91L to "be." However, 91L's synoptic environment is one of being a part of a larger entity - just an open wave - However, I suppose that I tend to see this very similarly to the way Dem does - that the arrow racing ahead is clearing out much of that dry air! So, net-net, I suppose this could ultimately be a positive for the MLC to fight off future attacks and close something off downstairs.

Any way you cut it, we are still chit-chatting over a system of very limited capacity right now. Quite possibly it was a depression a few days ago, but since then it has been a ghost of it's former self most of the time.

Edited by cieldumort (Thu Aug 10 2006 02:00 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Nothing Immediate MikeCAdministrator Thu Aug 10 2006 01:10 AM
. * * Re: recon Cat 5orBust   Sun Aug 13 2006 11:29 AM
. * * Re: recon HanKFranK   Sun Aug 13 2006 12:18 PM
. * * Re: recon lowtax   Sun Aug 13 2006 01:18 PM
. * * Re: recon scottsvb   Sun Aug 13 2006 01:38 PM
. * * Re: recon Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 13 2006 01:46 PM
. * * Re: recon scottsvb   Sun Aug 13 2006 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate Lee-Delray   Fri Aug 11 2006 10:15 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate Beaumont, TX   Fri Aug 11 2006 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate cieldumort   Fri Aug 11 2006 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate Clark   Fri Aug 11 2006 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate cieldumort   Fri Aug 11 2006 06:36 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate *DELETED* wereallgonnadie   Fri Aug 11 2006 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate Storm Cooper   Fri Aug 11 2006 08:42 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate sara33   Fri Aug 11 2006 10:01 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate BillD   Fri Aug 11 2006 10:24 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate cieldumort   Sat Aug 12 2006 12:00 AM
. * * stuff that probably doesn't matter... HanKFranK   Sat Aug 12 2006 12:28 AM
. * * Re: stuff that probably doesn't matter... cieldumort   Sat Aug 12 2006 02:57 AM
. * * Re: stuff that probably doesn't matter... HurryCaneForm   Sat Aug 12 2006 04:24 PM
. * * NCEP Discussion roundup-early danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 12 2006 09:53 PM
. * * NWS Randrew   Sun Aug 13 2006 12:27 AM
. * * Re: NWS Ron Basso   Sun Aug 13 2006 10:10 AM
. * * Re: NWS cieldumort   Sun Aug 13 2006 03:16 AM
. * * Cent Atl. Randrew   Sun Aug 13 2006 04:47 AM
. * * Re: Cent Atl. Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 13 2006 09:50 AM
. * * Re: Cent Atl. sunnygm   Sun Aug 13 2006 10:42 AM
. * * Re: Cent Atl. recmod   Sun Aug 13 2006 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Cent Atl. GuppieGrouper   Sun Aug 13 2006 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Cent Atl. stormchazer   Sun Aug 13 2006 11:06 AM
. * * Re: stuff that probably doesn't matter... Ed in Va   Sat Aug 12 2006 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate Beaumont, TX   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate allan   Wed Aug 09 2006 11:28 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate *DELETED* Major7   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate bhnole   Wed Aug 09 2006 02:32 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate Texas Cane Tracker   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:06 PM
. * * something immediate? HanKFranK   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:56 AM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might stormtiger   Wed Aug 09 2006 11:46 AM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might FloydRTurbo   Wed Aug 09 2006 02:24 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might sunnygm   Wed Aug 09 2006 02:35 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might Colleen A.   Wed Aug 09 2006 02:57 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might sunnygm   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:40 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might sunnygm   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:43 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might nl   Wed Aug 09 2006 04:25 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might madmumbler   Wed Aug 09 2006 05:15 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might SirCane   Wed Aug 09 2006 05:21 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might *DELETED* *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* meto23   Wed Aug 09 2006 06:10 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might sara33   Wed Aug 09 2006 06:28 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might SebastianLou   Wed Aug 09 2006 07:20 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 09 2006 07:50 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might allan   Wed Aug 09 2006 08:07 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might dem05   Wed Aug 09 2006 08:47 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might allan   Wed Aug 09 2006 08:52 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might Hugh   Wed Aug 09 2006 09:07 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might dem05   Wed Aug 09 2006 09:16 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:41 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might Genesis   Thu Aug 10 2006 12:22 AM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might dem05   Wed Aug 09 2006 11:37 PM
. * * 91L danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 10 2006 12:10 AM
. * * Re: 91L danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 10 2006 12:24 AM
. * * Re: 91L cieldumort   Thu Aug 10 2006 01:10 AM
. * * GOM ULL danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 10 2006 12:36 AM
. * * status quo HanKFranK   Thu Aug 10 2006 01:23 AM
. * * Re: status quo Bloodstar   Thu Aug 10 2006 03:56 AM
. * * Re: 91L taking the hard road stormtiger   Thu Aug 10 2006 09:53 AM
. * * Re: 91L taking the hard road bhnole   Thu Aug 10 2006 11:07 AM
. * * nodebby HanKFranK   Thu Aug 10 2006 11:27 AM
. * * Re: nodebby cuidado   Thu Aug 10 2006 01:37 PM
. * * Re: nodebby cieldumort   Thu Aug 10 2006 01:22 PM
. * * Re: nodebby Beaumont, TX   Thu Aug 10 2006 01:41 PM
. * * Re: nodebby cieldumort   Thu Aug 10 2006 02:03 PM
. * * Re: nodebby Texas Cane Tracker   Thu Aug 10 2006 03:30 PM
. * * Re: nodebby weather_wise911   Thu Aug 10 2006 04:59 PM
. * * Is this the right page? Randrew   Thu Aug 10 2006 10:16 PM
. * * Re: Is this the right page? cuidado   Fri Aug 11 2006 12:31 PM
. * * GOM ULL danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 10 2006 10:51 PM
. * * Re: nodebby Genesis   Thu Aug 10 2006 04:52 PM
. * * Re: nodebby SirCane   Thu Aug 10 2006 12:34 PM
. * * Re: 91L taking the hard road Ed in Va   Thu Aug 10 2006 11:25 AM
. * * Re: status quo GeneF   Thu Aug 10 2006 08:35 AM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might dem05   Wed Aug 09 2006 11:49 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might scottsvb   Wed Aug 09 2006 11:35 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might GuppieGrouper   Wed Aug 09 2006 05:51 PM
. * * It Ain't over yet Randrew   Wed Aug 09 2006 05:29 PM
. * * Re: It Ain't over yet Beaumont, TX   Wed Aug 09 2006 05:51 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might bhnole   Wed Aug 09 2006 04:34 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might weather_wise911   Wed Aug 09 2006 04:44 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might allan   Wed Aug 09 2006 04:31 PM
. * * No Closed Circulation Randrew   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:59 PM
. * * NRL Site Colleen A.   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:20 PM
. * * Re: NRL Site Fletch   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:35 PM
. * * Re: NRL Site HanKFranK   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:30 PM
. * * Re: NRL Site JOC   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:39 PM
. * * Re: NRL Site Randrew   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:29 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might cieldumort   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:01 PM
. * * ReWasn't it in 2004 we had similar instances stormtiger   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:17 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might cieldumort   Wed Aug 09 2006 02:53 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might allan   Wed Aug 09 2006 11:57 AM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might scottsvb   Wed Aug 09 2006 12:54 PM
. * * barbados obs HanKFranK   Wed Aug 09 2006 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Is the process starting again? stormtiger   Wed Aug 09 2006 12:38 PM
. * * Recon.. wxman007   Wed Aug 09 2006 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. HanKFranK   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. scottsvb   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:06 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. scottsvb   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:15 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. cieldumort   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:27 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. scottsvb   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:33 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. HurryCaneForm   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. JoeFL   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. SirCane   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. scottsvb   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. scottsvb   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. scottsvb   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:45 PM
. * * Florida ltpat228   Wed Aug 09 2006 12:43 PM
. * * Debby Randrew   Wed Aug 09 2006 11:52 AM
. * * RECON NOT CANCELLED NewWatcher   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:43 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate allan   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate HanKFranK   Wed Aug 09 2006 08:03 AM
. * * Re: HUH? MapMaster   Wed Aug 09 2006 09:36 AM
. * * Re: HUH? NewWatcher   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:03 AM
. * * Re: HUH? CoalCracker   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:32 AM
. * * Re: HUH? sara33   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:17 AM
. * * Re: HUH? HanKFranK   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:34 AM
. * * Re: HUH? LaVidaCyclone   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:03 AM
. * * Re: HUH? allan   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:00 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate Steve H1   Wed Aug 09 2006 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate bhnole   Wed Aug 09 2006 08:00 AM

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