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Tropical Storm #Barry Has Formed in the SW Bay of Campeche. Flhurricane.com
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 233 (Sandy), in Florida: 2795 (Wilma)
TS Barry
ADV#10 5:00 pm EDT
19.6N 95.2W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
W at 6 mph
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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
status quo
      Thu Aug 10 2006 01:23 AM

91L hasn't made any inroads to development since around noon today. a mid-level vorticity center developed in the convective burst, while a weak anticyclone began to build aloft, around which time the speeding system reoriented to something more like a squall line, with turning of the wave still present, but nearly all of the convection out on the leading edge. not the sort of profile you'd look for with a healthy system. i don't see a whole lot to slow 91L down. don't think it can develop for that reason. the trades are doing a great job keeping the deep tropics on standby.
further east the wave trailing 91L has a convergence line strung along its western itcz frontage. it may help focus a vorticity center and convective region, or may just be one of those features passing waves do generate without consequence...
probably the latter.
surface low in the northeast atlantic (sw of the azores) still not doing anything. didn't have the kind of focal mechanism that a single deep cutoff vortex with a good cold pool aloft could create... all it has managed so far has been a surface trough with a weak low.
scott has an interesting idea with a close-in feature getting splitting off of a trough and getting trapped under the continental ridge. thus far none have been deep enough to do more than drop in and push convection offshore.... just that mcc last weekend really crosses my memory. essentially a zonal type pattern with little amplification is driving the train... the onset of early fall type amplifications... and whatever meridional wave action in the tropics attends it (to create those logjam situations where the trade blitzkrieg is jumbled and energy amasses)... that stuff ought to be needed to break the generally hostile pattern in the tropics. maybe some sneaky/longshot type tropical activity before then.. but between the big blow that breaks the heat over the middle of the continent, and the arrival of whatever westerly lower-tropospheric mjo anomalies can be had.. right around then things should really be cranking.
late august, sometime. probably.
HF 0523z10august

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Nothing Immediate MikeCAdministrator Thu Aug 10 2006 01:23 AM
. * * Re: recon Cat 5orBust   Sun Aug 13 2006 11:29 AM
. * * Re: recon HanKFranK   Sun Aug 13 2006 12:18 PM
. * * Re: recon lowtax   Sun Aug 13 2006 01:18 PM
. * * Re: recon scottsvb   Sun Aug 13 2006 01:38 PM
. * * Re: recon Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 13 2006 01:46 PM
. * * Re: recon scottsvb   Sun Aug 13 2006 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate Lee-Delray   Fri Aug 11 2006 10:15 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate Beaumont, TX   Fri Aug 11 2006 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate cieldumort   Fri Aug 11 2006 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate Clark   Fri Aug 11 2006 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate cieldumort   Fri Aug 11 2006 06:36 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate *DELETED* wereallgonnadie   Fri Aug 11 2006 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate Storm Cooper   Fri Aug 11 2006 08:42 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate sara33   Fri Aug 11 2006 10:01 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate BillD   Fri Aug 11 2006 10:24 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate cieldumort   Sat Aug 12 2006 12:00 AM
. * * stuff that probably doesn't matter... HanKFranK   Sat Aug 12 2006 12:28 AM
. * * Re: stuff that probably doesn't matter... cieldumort   Sat Aug 12 2006 02:57 AM
. * * Re: stuff that probably doesn't matter... HurryCaneForm   Sat Aug 12 2006 04:24 PM
. * * NCEP Discussion roundup-early danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 12 2006 09:53 PM
. * * NWS Randrew   Sun Aug 13 2006 12:27 AM
. * * Re: NWS Ron Basso   Sun Aug 13 2006 10:10 AM
. * * Re: NWS cieldumort   Sun Aug 13 2006 03:16 AM
. * * Cent Atl. Randrew   Sun Aug 13 2006 04:47 AM
. * * Re: Cent Atl. Storm Hunter   Sun Aug 13 2006 09:50 AM
. * * Re: Cent Atl. sunnygm   Sun Aug 13 2006 10:42 AM
. * * Re: Cent Atl. recmod   Sun Aug 13 2006 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Cent Atl. GuppieGrouper   Sun Aug 13 2006 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Cent Atl. stormchazer   Sun Aug 13 2006 11:06 AM
. * * Re: stuff that probably doesn't matter... Ed in Va   Sat Aug 12 2006 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate Beaumont, TX   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate allan   Wed Aug 09 2006 11:28 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate *DELETED* Major7   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate bhnole   Wed Aug 09 2006 02:32 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate Texas Cane Tracker   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:06 PM
. * * something immediate? HanKFranK   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:56 AM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might stormtiger   Wed Aug 09 2006 11:46 AM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might FloydRTurbo   Wed Aug 09 2006 02:24 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might sunnygm   Wed Aug 09 2006 02:35 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might Colleen A.   Wed Aug 09 2006 02:57 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might sunnygm   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:40 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might sunnygm   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:43 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might nl   Wed Aug 09 2006 04:25 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might madmumbler   Wed Aug 09 2006 05:15 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might SirCane   Wed Aug 09 2006 05:21 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might *DELETED* *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* meto23   Wed Aug 09 2006 06:10 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might sara33   Wed Aug 09 2006 06:28 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might SebastianLou   Wed Aug 09 2006 07:20 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 09 2006 07:50 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might allan   Wed Aug 09 2006 08:07 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might dem05   Wed Aug 09 2006 08:47 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might allan   Wed Aug 09 2006 08:52 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might Hugh   Wed Aug 09 2006 09:07 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might dem05   Wed Aug 09 2006 09:16 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might Storm Hunter   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:41 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might Genesis   Thu Aug 10 2006 12:22 AM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might dem05   Wed Aug 09 2006 11:37 PM
. * * 91L danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 10 2006 12:10 AM
. * * Re: 91L danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 10 2006 12:24 AM
. * * Re: 91L cieldumort   Thu Aug 10 2006 01:10 AM
. * * GOM ULL danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 10 2006 12:36 AM
. * * status quo HanKFranK   Thu Aug 10 2006 01:23 AM
. * * Re: status quo Bloodstar   Thu Aug 10 2006 03:56 AM
. * * Re: 91L taking the hard road stormtiger   Thu Aug 10 2006 09:53 AM
. * * Re: 91L taking the hard road bhnole   Thu Aug 10 2006 11:07 AM
. * * nodebby HanKFranK   Thu Aug 10 2006 11:27 AM
. * * Re: nodebby cuidado   Thu Aug 10 2006 01:37 PM
. * * Re: nodebby cieldumort   Thu Aug 10 2006 01:22 PM
. * * Re: nodebby Beaumont, TX   Thu Aug 10 2006 01:41 PM
. * * Re: nodebby cieldumort   Thu Aug 10 2006 02:03 PM
. * * Re: nodebby Texas Cane Tracker   Thu Aug 10 2006 03:30 PM
. * * Re: nodebby weather_wise911   Thu Aug 10 2006 04:59 PM
. * * Is this the right page? Randrew   Thu Aug 10 2006 10:16 PM
. * * Re: Is this the right page? cuidado   Fri Aug 11 2006 12:31 PM
. * * GOM ULL danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 10 2006 10:51 PM
. * * Re: nodebby Genesis   Thu Aug 10 2006 04:52 PM
. * * Re: nodebby SirCane   Thu Aug 10 2006 12:34 PM
. * * Re: 91L taking the hard road Ed in Va   Thu Aug 10 2006 11:25 AM
. * * Re: status quo GeneF   Thu Aug 10 2006 08:35 AM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might dem05   Wed Aug 09 2006 11:49 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might scottsvb   Wed Aug 09 2006 11:35 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might GuppieGrouper   Wed Aug 09 2006 05:51 PM
. * * It Ain't over yet Randrew   Wed Aug 09 2006 05:29 PM
. * * Re: It Ain't over yet Beaumont, TX   Wed Aug 09 2006 05:51 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might bhnole   Wed Aug 09 2006 04:34 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might weather_wise911   Wed Aug 09 2006 04:44 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might allan   Wed Aug 09 2006 04:31 PM
. * * No Closed Circulation Randrew   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:59 PM
. * * NRL Site Colleen A.   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:20 PM
. * * Re: NRL Site Fletch   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:35 PM
. * * Re: NRL Site HanKFranK   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:30 PM
. * * Re: NRL Site JOC   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:39 PM
. * * Re: NRL Site Randrew   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:29 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might cieldumort   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:01 PM
. * * ReWasn't it in 2004 we had similar instances stormtiger   Wed Aug 09 2006 03:17 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might cieldumort   Wed Aug 09 2006 02:53 PM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might allan   Wed Aug 09 2006 11:57 AM
. * * Re:immediate will not survive, weak might scottsvb   Wed Aug 09 2006 12:54 PM
. * * barbados obs HanKFranK   Wed Aug 09 2006 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Is the process starting again? stormtiger   Wed Aug 09 2006 12:38 PM
. * * Recon.. wxman007   Wed Aug 09 2006 12:43 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. HanKFranK   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. scottsvb   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:06 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. scottsvb   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:15 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. cieldumort   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:27 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. scottsvb   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:33 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. HurryCaneForm   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. JoeFL   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. SirCane   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. scottsvb   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. scottsvb   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Recon.. scottsvb   Wed Aug 09 2006 01:45 PM
. * * Florida ltpat228   Wed Aug 09 2006 12:43 PM
. * * Debby Randrew   Wed Aug 09 2006 11:52 AM
. * * RECON NOT CANCELLED NewWatcher   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:43 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate allan   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:39 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate HanKFranK   Wed Aug 09 2006 08:03 AM
. * * Re: HUH? MapMaster   Wed Aug 09 2006 09:36 AM
. * * Re: HUH? NewWatcher   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:03 AM
. * * Re: HUH? CoalCracker   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:32 AM
. * * Re: HUH? sara33   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:17 AM
. * * Re: HUH? HanKFranK   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:34 AM
. * * Re: HUH? LaVidaCyclone   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:03 AM
. * * Re: HUH? allan   Wed Aug 09 2006 10:00 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate Steve H1   Wed Aug 09 2006 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Immediate bhnole   Wed Aug 09 2006 08:00 AM

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