definitely going to be a recon on 93L today as the low center is finally flaring convection on the western semicircle. it's almost directly over the higher heat content region of the gulf stream. also drifted about as far north as it's going to, as the shortwave is currently bypassing it and high pressure/northerly deep layer steering should start to influence it soon. the convective flare further south along the trough... where the other low center used to be more or less.. is robbing the inflow of 93L a tad, but is displaced far enough away that it more likely than not will just be a feeder band later on. recon will probably result in classification of tropical depression 4 this afternoon. surface obs and structure don't suggest anything more than maybe a 25 kt/ 1014 mb depression right now. dependent on how well the convection holds up it has a chance of being tropical storm debby over the next day or so. the 5:30 TWO is by franklin and typically gloomy on the long term prospects.. an established system would be forced south/southwestward under increasing northerly shear during the next few days. chances of this thing becoming well-organized aren't that good during the next few. it may end up ashore somewhere between daytona and wilmington during the next couple days as well. the latest mcc is drifting out into the gulf today. there are pre-existing surface boundaries out there from the last one, and a good bit of mid-level vorticity being injected into the region... have to see if the stuff flares back up today. very miniscule chances of anything unless there is persistent convection. waves in the deep tropics look flat and dead today. itcz is in its normal position for this time of year. the lows out east of bermuda are weak and disorganized. nothing else on the scene. HF 1431z16august
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