gfs has been accurately predicting nothing for some time, except for the a couple spells of seeing CV storms, but going back at the last minute. right now it's predicting something... that something being the CV season beginning during the next few days. not the first time it's done it, though more believable now considering the date and recent migration of pacific activity eastward. the 06z run even has a hurricane blitzing the east coast at the end of the month. nothing to hang your hat on (even your dingiest, most moth-eaten old sock)... but definitely of interest over the next few. 93L is in headlights right now, and can't get out of the road. thing is, there's going to be a bunch of mid-level vorticity strung along the region it's in while the shear tears by... and a good bit of the vorticity aloft (some even from the disturbed region off hatteras) is going to be still splayed from off the carolinas down to the northeast gulf by the time next week rolls around. 93L itself might be swept away... but the region will remain a focal point for disturbed weather even after the convection is gone. the slight baroclinic zone that is in the region may well persist through the period, and get right back to nuisancing the southeast when the shear has died back down. HF 1554z17august
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