Just a few quick notes for now...having a busy Sunday afternoon, so I hope to check back later with some more details concerning the Carribean.
First, I will comment on the models, they picked upon something a few days ago...then the models dropped off when something did not occur. Right now, as I look at the models with respect to the tropics...there seems to be a fair amount of disagreement as to whats going on basin wide. Not only with evolution, but with the future as well (I.E. Central Atlantic wave) These models may pick back up on this feature in the SW Carrib sometime soon.
Second, Here's the best link to a data buoy in the area. It's to the west, so down the road, it may be a decent area to watch. Link: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057 As you view this link, please be certain to monitor the graphs showing the history (Graph symbol next to each observation)...They tell more than the current observations. For example, the reports currently show falling pressures...but when you check the historical charts, they demonstrate the pressure falls are in line with the normal day to day tendancy. Likewise, learn to tie buoy observations into what is going on with the observations on satellite. For example, the reports show an east wind...However, a well organized surface outlow boundry from t-storms was passing over this buoy when the measurements were recorded. In the future, since the complex of thunderstorms we are watching are currently off to the east of this buoy...if you see any western component develop with the wind obeservation you should note it. Final note on this...Regarding the outflow boundry...I believe this is of little consequece to the primary thunderstorm complex.
In sum, I hope to provide more detail later, but overall...this is not a bad environment for something to develop and the thunderstorms do have a classic look of systems that try to become something in the region. With that said, we are probably only 12 or so hours into some good t-storm activity down there. On the pro side, this is occuring during the daytime minimum, on the con side...if things flare down during the nightime maximum...then it has a long way to go. While this is one of the more interesting features we've noticed t-storm wise lately, it's important not to forget the basic rule of persistance. With that said, if you want my opinion...we've maybe got something here to keep an eye on over the coming days.
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