taking it from east to west today: 96L looks mighty good. tony c. already covered the particulars and i don't see much else beyond that. a large number of the globals are showing early development and taking the system generally northwest. ssts past the CV islands cool off below threshold for a stretch, so if it goes up early it will knock itself back down. those that develop it maintain it through there, though... gfs has it meander nw for days and recurve well east of bermuda (east of 50w even). hard to believe it won't get a little further west than that... but who knows? more stock in the globals when it gets a bump up. FYI folks who look at the nrl estimated intensity... that's just an estimate that isn't necessarily right. it's usually based on satellite appearances and those can be quite wrong, especially under shear conditions, or with some that have more convection than real organization. closer to 40w is another bulge on the itcz, with elongated turning. there are enough globals that see this region and keep it a discrete feature further west that it's of some interest. i guess it's a wave, but a low-medium amplitude one that's very much itcz involved. days away from doing anything if at all. the western caribbean feature is also of modest interest. it looks like most of the energy is going northwest towards the bay of campeche/yucatan, but one good burst of convection is located west of jamaica and track more northward. it doesn't seem to have any surface reflection, but is somewhat persistent. disturbed weather should be strung across the southern half of the gulf going into midweek, as an item of interest but at this point doesn't look like anything significant will come of it. looks like the rest of the month should stay fairly active at this point. HF 1710z21august
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