Well, Clark definately did an excellent job with his blog earlier today. Having had a chance to meet and get to know Mr. Stewart I can tell you he is one of the best hurricane forcasters in the world...and we maybe be seeing Clark in a similar class.
Finally, for the trackers out there...there is something to track! Fortunately, I'd give it a 1% at best chance of ever being a north american threat at all. So I definately agree with you HF, even on a southern course...this will miss the leewards and likely find a way out to sea.
While tracking this feature, I maintain my theory from several days ago that the disturbed area in the Carribean is worth a good hard look. I just can't back away from my theory on development in the area and I may eat crow, but I respectfully disagree with HF and believe this may happen sooner than late week. At the very least, 04 is far enough out to sea and poses such a small threat that it doesn't hurt to keep an eye on this feature in the west. carrib. For one thing, we do have a fair amount of cenvective persistance that has lasted down there since the weekend. On one hand, these thunderstorms have failed to attain better organization due to the fast trade winds. On a cautionary note, the activity has moved NW into an area closer to the Yucatan, where the trades notoriously have an opportunity to slow down and pile up. This is an area where things can get together and the following dynamics could give it an even better shot: There is an upper low west of 95 degrees in the Bay of Camp./Mex and the the ridge in the northern gulf is bucking westward thanks to a westward retrograding upper low around Tallahassee. The combination should open up the NW Carribean and Eastern gulf into a generally favorable pattern.
As far as models go, they are still just not seeing the atlantic basin well. I made reference to this a few days ago as well as in previous forums.Not only are these models failing to see the overall picture, they are rather inconsistent from run to run. Right now, you can even find the carribean feature where it actually is located on most models...and in one graphic example of model whoops...the 12Z Canadian saw nothing from the wave entering the carrib, yet developed something off Naples and took it into the W. Florida Panhandle. at 00Z (The latest run) a tropical cyclone can be seen going frome the Yucatan into the western gulf. It also saw the wave entering the Carrib. moving through the Yucatan Channel at the end of the period as a tropical cyclone. I could break out each model...but it's easier to say each one has it'sown twists and turns right now...and none of them seem to have an acurate picture for now.
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