Almost all of the current models on WU show the system beginning to turn north as it approaches the western Caribbean. In fact, all but one of the models now puts it over or just north of Jamaica, moving toward the Isle of Youth south of the western tip of Cuba. If the storm develops and is about the same size as it appears now, south Florida could be impacted (particularly the Keys) even though it looks like it main threat would be the Gulf. It's all speculation beyond the next day or two, though.
Update @ 8:22pm CDT... NRL has put up a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert on 97L as of 00z (7pm CDT), centered around 10.4N, 54.8W (guessing at estimated location).
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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