Quote: Too early to tell where this storm (if it develops) will go. It's all timing. The model suites generally track it W-NW to around Jamaica in 5 days. Beyond that, its wait and see. I found another 2004 storm that developed near this location - not sayin it'll follow the same path but interesting nonetheless.
Thing with charley if i remember correctly is that a trough turned this northward. Gotta watch those troughs.
Yeah, and believe it or not, the ultimate track of this system (or any other) depends on the evolution of the upper air pattern in the North Pacific and Alaska. And because we obviously don't collect alot of upper air data over the Pacific ocean, the forecasts made 7-10 days out are often wrong - at least with timing issues of troughs. That's why anyone says they know where it'll go after 5 days is nearly always wrong.
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