Quote: Too early to tell where this storm (if it develops) will go. It's all timing. The model suites generally track it W-NW to around Jamaica in 5 days. Beyond that, its wait and see. I found another 2004 storm that developed near this location - not sayin it'll follow the same path but interesting nonetheless.
Thing with charley if i remember correctly is that a trough turned this northward. Gotta watch those troughs.
Yeah, and believe it or not, the ultimate track of this system (or any other) depends on the evolution of the upper air pattern in the North Pacific and Alaska. And because we obviously don't collect alot of upper air data over the Pacific ocean, the forecasts made 7-10 days out are often wrong - at least with timing issues of troughs. That's why anyone says they know where it'll go after 5 days is nearly always wrong.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is disabled
Thread views: 52042
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center