In the last three hours or so...97L has really came around... I think we could have a TD/TS at the 5am adv.. even without recon data.. I see navy has a sat about to fly over in 15mins or so... the blow-up of convection is showing some very cold cloud tops....The question is right now... will this last for a few more hours and allow the surface reflection to strengthen? I am thinking it may, SST's are warm... its staying to the south of the dust and the shear is not that strong. Looked at the CMC 00z run... not good... the GOM is very warm at the last check i saw... will have to see what the rest of the models do... See the Click here then go to row one "Early-cycle intensity guidance Frame 1" ....New rule, can't link to image. I am thinking in line with hanks post above...
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