The appearance has been pretty darn good overnight - with the AMSRE overpass doing the system justice. Suspect that if we were flying around in there overnight it might have been slightly better than 50/50 chances of finding a closed low level center. And with the winds already supporting a call of TS, it will be most interesting to see if 97 still doesn't get the bump before recon gets in there.
Wanted to point something else out - not 98L, yet. However, we have an ULL in the NE GOM that has been sitting and spinning, with very little overall net movement for several days. Some model runs were building this feature down and spitting out a TC/hybrid from it. Believe a few still hint at such an evolution. I think that it's worth pointing out that I've plotted numerous obs from the area and have ascertained that a very weak low level reflection may be closing off underneath the ull, somewhere in the vicinity of 26-29N/86-88W, with a min. sea-level pressure of now roughly 1012MB, and generally on a lowering trend throughout the entire GOM.
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