Devil's Advocate: As I see it so far, 1009 isn't especially low baro. I might be screaming "Aflac!," but it's also screaming "I'm better organized and have less shear ahead of me that 93L. Really!! I do!! Hey, guys, why don't you believe me!?" Basically, there have not been any NE, N, NW or W winds of substance I have seen so far - which is not surprising given the ambient flow in the region. Unless that min. central pressure can come down some more, it may be a bit challenging to a possibly somewhat conservative year at NHC to justify numbering.
On the flip side, this "wave" is already producing gusts to 50MPH.
Hmmm. Down to 1008 .. getting closer
the islands to the north have reported winds ne-se. st lucia had east winds around 30 kt in a squall earlier. several stations have been reporting 20-25 kt winds for hours. if you've got a closed tropical low and winds like that.. fact, it's a depression. -HF Alright, but I think we'll need to see winds from the *west* for it to be truly closed - ciel
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