Right now, I'm a bit speculative that a new low has formed. I was thinking the same thing...But then I thought, hey....maybe the mid-level low is displaced back to the east of the surface low...then I thought...hmmm, this infrared stuff sets up a lot of optical illusions sometimes and you just don't get the same quality as out of the visible with these weak systems. So, in checking out the Shortwave loop, I also noticed it wasn't as telling either (did look as thought the surface feature was closer to the leading edge though)...but then I clicked on the upper air flow and it appears that this "reformation" we think we are seeing as an optical illusion due to some upper air winds working on the cloud tops. Gotta admit though, still tough to say for sure...but it pretty much looks that way. Link to shortwave loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html
Models: Yeah, they aren't doing too well right now...God bless the Canadian model for it's consistancy...but it is moving way to fast which throws a lot out the window...at that speed we know it would plow into the upper low in the west carrib for one thing...on a second note, that agressive forward track has it missing several other features that may come into play later down the road. Saw the 18Z GFS...it initialized better and was on a path a little south of the 12Z GFDL...between the 950 and 850 mb vorticity...it had it through Central Cuba as a weak system. Fact is...these models are gonna windshield whiper...also, there are features that may affect this 6-7days out that are just off the model grid entirely. There will be lots of changes ahead, so I'm kinda prefering to stick to the present +2 days...to see if this thing even survives the upcomming challenges.
Content EDIT: Gotta admit...Mother nature has bit my fingers once or twice with longer term calls this year...so I feel best watching this system over the next 2 days to see what kind of strength/organization it will get before I make any calls on it out 4-5 days from now. Personally wouldn't want to mislead anyone at any one given location along the gulf right now myself.
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