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Archives >> 2006 News Talkbacks

dem05
User

Reged: Wed
Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL

Re: Let's get ready
Thu Aug 24 2006 08:58 PM

Right now, I'm a bit speculative that a new low has formed. I was thinking the same thing...But then I thought, hey....maybe the mid-level low is displaced back to the east of the surface low...then I thought...hmmm, this infrared stuff sets up a lot of optical illusions sometimes and you just don't get the same quality as out of the visible with these weak systems.
So, in checking out the Shortwave loop, I also noticed it wasn't as telling either (did look as thought the surface feature was closer to the leading edge though)...but then I clicked on the upper air flow and it appears that this "reformation" we think we are seeing as an optical illusion due to some upper air winds working on the cloud tops. Gotta admit though, still tough to say for sure...but it pretty much looks that way.
Link to shortwave loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

Models: Yeah, they aren't doing too well right now...God bless the Canadian model for it's consistancy...but it is moving way to fast which throws a lot out the window...at that speed we know it would plow into the upper low in the west carrib for one thing...on a second note, that agressive forward track has it missing several other features that may come into play later down the road. Saw the 18Z GFS...it initialized better and was on a path a little south of the 12Z GFDL...between the 950 and 850 mb vorticity...it had it through Central Cuba as a weak system. Fact is...these models are gonna windshield whiper...also, there are features that may affect this 6-7days out that are just off the model grid entirely. There will be lots of changes ahead, so I'm kinda prefering to stick to the present +2 days...to see if this thing even survives the upcomming challenges.

Content EDIT:

Gotta admit...Mother nature has bit my fingers once or twice with longer term calls this year...so I feel best watching this system over the next 2 days to see what kind of strength/organization it will get before I make any calls on it out 4-5 days from now. Personally wouldn't want to mislead anyone at any one given location along the gulf right now myself.

Edited by dem05 (Thu Aug 24 2006 09:17 PM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	MikeC	Thu Aug 24 2006 08:58 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Cat 5orBust	Fri Aug 25 2006 12:53 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	willy	Fri Aug 25 2006 01:07 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	amonty	Fri Aug 25 2006 01:16 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	TampaRand	Fri Aug 25 2006 01:00 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	MG / Riviera Maya, Mexico	Fri Aug 25 2006 12:00 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	dem05	Fri Aug 25 2006 01:16 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	cieldumort	Fri Aug 25 2006 02:30 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	scottsvb	Fri Aug 25 2006 03:04 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	GuppieGrouper	Fri Aug 25 2006 04:29 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	cieldumort	Fri Aug 25 2006 05:22 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	amonty	Fri Aug 25 2006 08:46 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	GuppieGrouper	Fri Aug 25 2006 06:00 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Hugh	Fri Aug 25 2006 06:15 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 25 2006 07:01 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Hugh	Fri Aug 25 2006 07:06 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	HURRICANELONNY	Fri Aug 25 2006 07:36 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	SirCane	Fri Aug 25 2006 08:30 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Thunderbird12	Fri Aug 25 2006 08:55 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	samiam	Fri Aug 25 2006 09:09 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	TampaRand	Fri Aug 25 2006 10:20 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	EugeneF	Fri Aug 25 2006 09:21 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	amonty	Fri Aug 25 2006 09:39 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	WeatherNLU	Fri Aug 25 2006 09:57 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	SebastianLou	Fri Aug 25 2006 01:15 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Clark	Fri Aug 25 2006 10:08 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	WeatherNLU	Fri Aug 25 2006 10:17 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Clark	Fri Aug 25 2006 11:58 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	saluki	Fri Aug 25 2006 12:15 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	CoalCracker	Fri Aug 25 2006 12:32 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	dem05	Fri Aug 25 2006 12:44 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	HanKFranK	Fri Aug 25 2006 12:49 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Clark	Fri Aug 25 2006 01:44 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	pcola	Fri Aug 25 2006 01:54 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 25 2006 02:17 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Thunderbird12	Fri Aug 25 2006 02:35 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	WeatherNut	Fri Aug 25 2006 03:13 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Steve H1	Fri Aug 25 2006 03:16 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	RevUp	Fri Aug 25 2006 02:43 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Manny	Fri Aug 25 2006 02:49 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	RevUp	Fri Aug 25 2006 03:00 PM
hang on..	HanKFranK	Fri Aug 25 2006 03:24 PM
Re: hang on..	RevUp	Fri Aug 25 2006 03:44 PM
Re: hang on..	TampaRand	Fri Aug 25 2006 03:40 PM
Re: hang on..	Hawkeyewx	Fri Aug 25 2006 03:36 PM
Re: hang on..	nl	Fri Aug 25 2006 03:38 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	hurricaneguy	Fri Aug 25 2006 03:11 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	heynow	Fri Aug 25 2006 03:20 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	BigPlay	Fri Aug 25 2006 03:19 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	pcola	Fri Aug 25 2006 03:05 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	doug	Fri Aug 25 2006 03:13 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	HurryCaneForm	Fri Aug 25 2006 03:20 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	HCW	Fri Aug 25 2006 03:32 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	LisaC	Fri Aug 25 2006 03:24 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	WeatherNLU	Fri Aug 25 2006 02:38 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Clark	Fri Aug 25 2006 02:49 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	amonty	Fri Aug 25 2006 02:51 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	madmumbler	Fri Aug 25 2006 03:50 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	amonty	Fri Aug 25 2006 04:00 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	NewWatcher	Fri Aug 25 2006 04:16 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	CoalCracker	Fri Aug 25 2006 04:29 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Ed in Va	Fri Aug 25 2006 04:25 PM
new thread	HanKFranK	Fri Aug 25 2006 04:29 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	abyrd	Fri Aug 25 2006 03:55 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	johnnyg	Fri Aug 25 2006 02:24 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	WeatherNLU	Fri Aug 25 2006 02:30 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	anon tiger	Fri Aug 25 2006 02:33 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	RevUp	Fri Aug 25 2006 01:50 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	RevUp	Fri Aug 25 2006 01:38 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	WeatherNut	Fri Aug 25 2006 01:23 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	NewWatcher	Fri Aug 25 2006 01:26 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	amonty	Fri Aug 25 2006 01:31 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	native	Fri Aug 25 2006 01:42 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Lee-Delray	Fri Aug 25 2006 01:36 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Beaumont, TX	Fri Aug 25 2006 02:23 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	scottsvb	Fri Aug 25 2006 01:40 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	EugeneF	Fri Aug 25 2006 01:41 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	nl	Fri Aug 25 2006 01:30 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	pcola	Fri Aug 25 2006 01:01 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	ElizabethH	Fri Aug 25 2006 12:11 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	TampaRand	Fri Aug 25 2006 12:24 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	WeatherNLU	Fri Aug 25 2006 12:10 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	scottsvb	Fri Aug 25 2006 10:28 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	scottsvb	Fri Aug 25 2006 10:38 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	WeatherNLU	Fri Aug 25 2006 10:42 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Tropics Guy	Fri Aug 25 2006 10:49 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Thunderbird12	Fri Aug 25 2006 11:07 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Steve H1	Fri Aug 25 2006 10:58 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	HanKFranK	Fri Aug 25 2006 11:30 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Steve H1	Fri Aug 25 2006 12:42 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	DaViking	Fri Aug 25 2006 12:48 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	hurricaneguy	Fri Aug 25 2006 11:44 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	jbmusic	Fri Aug 25 2006 11:41 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Storm Trooper	Fri Aug 25 2006 11:51 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Beach	Fri Aug 25 2006 11:15 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	pcola	Fri Aug 25 2006 11:18 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	hurricaneguy	Fri Aug 25 2006 11:24 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Ed in Va	Fri Aug 25 2006 11:22 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Beaumont, TX	Fri Aug 25 2006 11:27 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	nl	Fri Aug 25 2006 11:29 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	anon tiger	Fri Aug 25 2006 11:06 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Lsr1166	Fri Aug 25 2006 10:48 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Lee-Delray	Fri Aug 25 2006 09:32 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	SebastianLou	Fri Aug 25 2006 08:37 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Fri Aug 25 2006 07:57 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	SebastianLou	Fri Aug 25 2006 08:27 AM
contingency three	HanKFranK	Fri Aug 25 2006 02:17 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	HanKFranK	Fri Aug 25 2006 12:56 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	HurryCaneForm	Fri Aug 25 2006 01:03 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Hurricane Fredrick 1979	Fri Aug 25 2006 12:48 AM
RECON	danielw	Fri Aug 25 2006 12:51 AM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	score42288	Thu Aug 24 2006 06:30 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Mike Gaynor	Thu Aug 24 2006 06:39 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	HurryCaneForm	Thu Aug 24 2006 06:35 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Hurricane Fredrick 1979	Thu Aug 24 2006 06:41 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	SirCane	Thu Aug 24 2006 07:03 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	johnnyg	Thu Aug 24 2006 07:57 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Hurricane Fredrick 1979	Thu Aug 24 2006 09:18 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Hugh	Thu Aug 24 2006 07:54 PM
Let's get ready	Sea Mule	Thu Aug 24 2006 07:54 PM
Re: Let's get ready	SebastianLou	Thu Aug 24 2006 08:09 PM
Re: Let's get ready	HanKFranK	Thu Aug 24 2006 08:55 PM
Re: Let's get ready	johnnyg	Thu Aug 24 2006 08:16 PM
Re: Let's get ready	SebastianLou	Thu Aug 24 2006 08:28 PM
Re: Let's get ready	Mike Gaynor	Thu Aug 24 2006 08:39 PM
Re: Let's get ready	johnnyg	Thu Aug 24 2006 08:42 PM
Re: Let's get ready	dem05	Thu Aug 24 2006 08:58 PM
Re: Let's get ready	johnnyg	Thu Aug 24 2006 09:19 PM
Re: Let's get ready	HanKFranK	Thu Aug 24 2006 09:33 PM
5 and Debby	Clark	Thu Aug 24 2006 11:26 PM
Re: Let's get ready	dem05	Thu Aug 24 2006 09:50 PM
Re: Let's get ready	Hugh	Thu Aug 24 2006 10:55 PM
Re: Let's get ready	Hugh	Thu Aug 24 2006 09:41 PM
Re: Let's get ready	Beaumont, TX	Thu Aug 24 2006 11:39 PM
Re: Let's get ready	hurricaneguy	Thu Aug 24 2006 11:59 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms in Eastern Caribbean	Hugh	Thu Aug 24 2006 07:01 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms East of the Caribbean	Cat 5orBust	Thu Aug 24 2006 03:55 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms East of the Caribbean	twizted sizter	Thu Aug 24 2006 04:09 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms East of the Caribbean	amonty	Thu Aug 24 2006 04:14 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms East of the Caribbean	Hurricane Fredrick 1979	Thu Aug 24 2006 04:12 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms East of the Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Thu Aug 24 2006 04:14 PM
RECCO	drunkatgt	Thu Aug 24 2006 04:24 PM
Re: RECCO	amonty	Thu Aug 24 2006 04:26 PM
Re: RECCO	EugeneF	Thu Aug 24 2006 04:49 PM
five	HanKFranK	Thu Aug 24 2006 05:07 PM
Re: RECCO	amonty	Thu Aug 24 2006 04:57 PM
Re: RECCO	johnnyg	Thu Aug 24 2006 05:00 PM
Re: RECCO	hurricaneguy	Thu Aug 24 2006 05:05 PM
Re: RECCO	johnnyg	Thu Aug 24 2006 05:08 PM
Re: CMC Loop	EugeneF	Thu Aug 24 2006 05:14 PM
Re: CMC Loop	nc_tropical_wx79	Thu Aug 24 2006 06:04 PM
Re: CMC Loop	pcola	Thu Aug 24 2006 06:08 PM
Re: CMC Loop	Rich B	Thu Aug 24 2006 06:02 PM
Re: RECCO	pcola	Thu Aug 24 2006 04:56 PM
Re: RECCO	Storm Hunter	Thu Aug 24 2006 05:01 PM
Re: RECCO	cieldumort	Thu Aug 24 2006 04:55 PM
Re: RECCO	Storm Hunter	Thu Aug 24 2006 04:55 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms East of the Caribbean	Hurricane Fredrick 1979	Thu Aug 24 2006 03:57 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms East of the Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Thu Aug 24 2006 03:33 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms East of the Caribbean	native	Thu Aug 24 2006 03:43 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms East of the Caribbean	FloydRTurbo	Thu Aug 24 2006 04:15 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms East of the Caribbean	johnnyg	Thu Aug 24 2006 04:22 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms East of the Caribbean	pcola	Thu Aug 24 2006 04:27 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms East of the Caribbean	johnnyg	Thu Aug 24 2006 04:34 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms East of the Caribbean	Storm Hunter	Thu Aug 24 2006 04:41 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms East of the Caribbean	johnnyg	Thu Aug 24 2006 04:44 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms East of the Caribbean	johnnyg	Thu Aug 24 2006 04:48 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms East of the Caribbean	cieldumort	Thu Aug 24 2006 04:40 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms East of the Caribbean	HURRICANELONNY	Thu Aug 24 2006 04:40 PM
Re: Tropical Depression Five Forms East of the Caribbean	Steve H1	Thu Aug 24 2006 03:53 PM

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